March 2, 2012: One Year Later Thoughts and An Announcement

One year ago, a devastating tornado outbreak struck areas from Illinois to Virginia and from the Tri-State south to Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and the Carolinas, leaving 41 people dead and multitudes of others injuried. Here is the day of March 2 as I (Jeremy) remember it. I put this in timeline form at the six month anniversary. Obviously, nothing has changed from this timeline, but we’ve added some video to it.

1:00 AM: Day 1 SPC outlook places Cincinnati in moderate risk of severe storms.
7:00 AM: I’ve been up all night tracking what is occurring out in Missouri. I now have a doctor’s appointment to go to, but I leave radar up while I’m preparing.
10 AM: Rain hits the downtown area of Cincinnati — but this isn’t even the main event.
11:00 AM: Severe weather has broken out in Alabama.
11:30 AM: SPC new outlook puts Cincinnati and NKY in the High Risk zone. Nick Byrd puts out the word on the NKY Weather Facebook…my cell phone battery has died by this point as I’ve been watching things all morning.
1:45 PM: I make it home and jump in on coverage on an Internet radio station (JJRN) run by a pair of friends, Jarrod Jicha and Cindy Detro (sadly, the station no longer exists).
2:50 PM: A major tornado forms west of Henryville, Indiana.
3:00 PM: Henryville is hit by the first of two tornadoes to strike the vicinity. This would do damage all the way into Carroll County, KY, and a tornado would be captured on video by my friend and colleague, storm chaser Corey Ecton, nearby:

3:19 PM: First tornado warning in the NKYWx forecast area, covers the extreme western part of NKY.
3:34 PM: National Weather Service in Wilmington issues first ever (for that particular NWS office) “Tornado Emergency”, covering a chunk of the western forecast area.
3:44 PM: Tornado Warnings dropped for southwestern Dearborn, southern Ripley counties…a new warning would be needed minutes later for the Holton tornado for Ripley County.
3:50 PM: New “Tornado Emergency” covers Carroll, Gallatin, Kenton, Boone, Switzerland, Grant and Owen counties.
3:52 PM: I take cover in the basement at home, as a course of least regret.
3:53 PM: Tornado hits Holton, IN.
4:03 PM: Another tornado warning for Boone, Gallatin, Kenton and Switzerland counties. I stay in my basement through this, tornado sirens blaring all along.
4:15 PM: Debris reported falling in Boone County as of 4:10 PM. Another official Tornado Emergency is issued based on this report.
4:32 PM: I call the Tornado Emergency for Piner and Morning View…Tornado has formed in Crittenden and is clearly seen on radar, with a debris ball signature. This tornado actually came within a few hundred feet of Nick Byrd’s home. We are thankful we didn’t have to help one of our own, but would have if need be.
4:35 PM: Boone County pulled from the tornado warning. I rejoin coverage online on JJRN soon after until that ends.

Things become a blur after this, and in my fatigue that day, I’m sure I forgot a lot. A lot of the following comes from the National Weather Service offices in Wilmington, OH and Jackson, KY.

4:40 PM: Another tornado touches down in Peach Grove, KY; it would track through Moscow, Ohio and all the way to near Hamersville, Ohio in Brown County before lifting.
5:02 PM: Small tornado in Berlin, KY (Bracken County).
5:25-5:40 PM: Several tornadoes strike Adams County, Ohio.
5:58 PM: Tornado hits the downtown sections of West Liberty, KY, which is east of Lexington and southwest of Ashland, KY.
6:50 PM: Salyersville, Kentucky hit by tornado.
7:00 PM: Portions of Laurel County, KY hit by another destructive tornado.
Around 9:30 PM: JJRN coverage wraps up.
11:00 PM: I finally climb into bed, completely exhausted.

Over the following days, the Crittenden/Piner and Henryville tornadoes would be declared EF-4’s; the Peach Grove to Moscow to Hamersville, Salyersville, West Liberty, and Holton tornadoes would be declared EF-3, and most others noted in this listing would be found to be EF-2’s or lower. Eleven fatalities have been confirmed in the Cincinnati television market, which I still take personally to this very day. It was the worst day of my storm tracking career. I hope I never see this happen again, but in reality, tornado outbreaks occur every year. We’re going to see this happen again. Our job is to limit the number of fatalities, and I promise you that I will be involved in that effort until I no longer have the strength to do so.

To that end, I am proud to announce that this season I am partnering with Corey and Nick Long to chase some of the events that come our way. I’m not sure when our first chase of 2013 will be, but we’re going to be working together and will try to make the process better.

Saturday 3/2 Forecast: Much Different From A Year Ago

THE WEEKEND: I am going with cloudy skies today, and some clearing Sunday. Highs will be around freezing both days with morning lows of 21 on Sunday.

MONDAY: At this point we still appear to be dry but maybe a bit warmer with highs closer to 40 degrees and lows Monday morning around 26. Skies will be partly cloudy.

TUESDAY: The next system comes in, and it has been trending snowier. How much is up in the air… Stay tuned. Highs will be around 40 with lows down to 25.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: I am going with a high around 35 on Wednesday and rebounding to 48 Thursday as we clear things up and dry out. Lows both mornings end up around 25.

ONE YEAR AGO: I would be remiss if I didn’t bring this up. One year ago today, devastating, killer tornadoes ripped across the Tri-State as well as several other states, including the now famous Henryville, IN EF-4; another EF-4 that hit Crittenden and Piner in NKY (fact: this one came within a few hundred feet of our own Nick Byrd’s home) and to the Licking River; an EF-3 that ripped through Holton, Indiana; and an EF-3 that destroyed portions of Campbell, Pendleton, Clermont and Brown counties. You are in our hearts and on our minds today.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us for weather info, school closings, and traffic updates as needed:

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NEXT UPDATE: Your next blog update will be tomorrow morning. Until then, have a great Saturday!

Jeremy Moses

Friday 3/1 Forecast: Lingering Snow Showers?

TODAY: Expect cloudy skies and highs only around 37 after lows close to 30 later this morning. I’m hesitant to go higher thanks to cloud cover. There also remains the chance of a snow shower or two.

THE WEEKEND: I am going with cloudy skies on Saturday, and some clearing Sunday. Highs will be around freezing both days with morning lows of 27 on Saturday, and 21 on Sunday. This is a change thanks to clouds holding temperatures higher tonight.

MONDAY: At this point we still appear to be dry but maybe a bit warmer with highs closer to 40 degrees and lows Monday morning around 26. Skies will be partly cloudy.

TUESDAY: The next system comes in, and it is still too early to call rain vs snow (and if the latter, how much). Stay tuned. Highs will be around 40 with lows down to 25.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: I am going with a high around 35 on Wednesday and rebounding to 48 Thursday as we clear things up and dry out. Lows both mornings end up around 25.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us for weather info, school closings, and traffic updates as needed:

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NEXT UPDATE: Your next blog update will be tomorrow morning. Until then, have a great Friday!

Jeremy Moses

Thursday 2/28 Forecast: Continued Snow Shower Chances, Still Cold!

TODAY: Snow showers will continue to rotate through today, but coverage should be less than overnight (especially later today). In some of the heavier snow showers (which will look impressive at times), I still cannot rule out a quick inch of accumulation but most areas probably won’t get that. Roads should be fine, except reduced visibility in some of the snow showers. I expect highs in the middle 30’s at best today.

FRIDAY: Expect cloudy skies and highs only around 37 after lows close to 30.

THE WEEKEND: I am removing the snow chance from the forecast on Saturday. Highs will be around freezing both days with morning lows of 21 on Saturday and 24 on Sunday.

MONDAY: At this point we still appear to be dry but maybe a bit warmer with lows around 27 and highs closer to 40 degrees. Skies will be partly cloudy.

TUESDAY: The next system comes in, and it is too early to call rain vs snow (and if the latter, how much). Highs will be around 40 with lows down to 25.

WEDNESDAY: Early signals suggest a high around 35 on Wednesday under mostly cloudy skies.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us for weather info, school closings, and traffic updates as needed:

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NEXT UPDATE: Your next blog update will be tomorrow morning. Until then, have a great Thursday!

Jeremy Moses

Wednesday 2/27 Evening Forecast Update: Impressive Looking Snow Showers

TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Snow showers will be around overnight, as well as tomorrow and possibly even Friday. In some of the heavier snow showers (which will look impressive at times), I cannot rule out a quick inch of accumulation but most areas probably won’t get that. Roads should be fine, except reduced visibility in some of the snow showers. I expect lows around 25 tonight and highs in the middle to upper 30’s at best tomorrow and Friday. Friday morning lows go down to 21.

THE WEEKEND: I can’t rule out some snow showers Saturday, but Sunday we finally get all precip outta here. Highs will be around freezing both days with morning lows of 21 on Saturday and 24 on Sunday. This will all depend on if we can get some snow cover down — if we do, these numbers could need adjustment.

MONDAY-TUESDAY At this point we still appear to be dry but maybe a bit warmer with lows around 27 and highs closer to 40 degrees. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us for weather info, school closings, and traffic updates as needed:

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NEXT UPDATE: Your next blog update will be tomorrow morning. Until then, have a great Wednesday evening!

Jeremy Moses

Wednesday 2/27 Forecast: Rain to Snow and a Slow Downward Temp Trend Today

TODAY-FRIDAY: The rain changes over to snow showers today, which stick around through Thursday and maybe even into Friday. In some of the heavier snow showers I cannot rule out a quick inch of accumulation. Temperatures will hold steady this morning in the upper 30’s and then take a slow downward turn this afternoon as colder air filters in. I expect lows in the 20’s and highs in the middle to upper 30’s tomorrow and Friday.

THE WEEKEND: I can’t rule out some snow showers through the first half of the weekend, but Sunday we finally get all precip outta here. Highs will be around freezing both days with morning lows of 21 on Saturday and 24 on Sunday. This will all depend on if we can get some snow cover down — if we do, these numbers could need adjustment.

MONDAY-TUESDAY At this point we still appear to be dry but maybe a bit warmer with lows around 27 and highs closer to 40 degrees. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us for weather info, school closings, and traffic updates as needed:

NKYWx on Facebook
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NEXT UPDATE: Your next blog update will be this afternoon. Until then, make it a great Wednesday!

Jeremy Moses

Tuesday 2/26 Forecast: A Damp, Raw Day Ahead

TODAY-THURSDAY: Precipitation begins this morning, and it will be a rainy day. I still cannot rule out some freezing rain in places especially north of the I-275 loop early this morning — so be mindful of that and take it slow. It will also be windy with gusts at times as high as 30-35 MPH. We make it to around 43 this afternoon. The rain changes over to a chance of snow showers tonight and Wednesday, which sticks around through Thursday. I expect lows in the upper 20’s and highs in the middle to upper 30’s both tomorrow and Thursday.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: The earlier suggestion that we would dry things out is still in play, but I can’t rule out some snow showers for the first half of the weekend. Highs will be around 35 all three days with morning lows of 29 Friday, 21 on Saturday and 24 on Sunday. This will all depend on if we can get some snow cover down — if we do, these numbers could need adjustment.

MONDAY: At this point we still appear to be dry but maybe a bit warmer with lows around 27 and highs closer to 40 degrees.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us for weather info, school closings, and traffic updates as needed:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: Your next blog update will be this afternoon. Until then, make it a great Tuesday!

Jeremy Moses