Sunday 9/30 Forecast Discussion: Ending September On A Weather High Note

TODAY: An upper level low will drop into north central and northeast Ohio. The best moisture stays northeast, so I think we’re still dry Sunday with highs around 68 and lows around 48.

MONDAY: Models have good lift overspreading the area on Monday with a surface low moving across the Ohio Valley. They also show a mid/upper level trough moving east out of the central US. I continue to leave a rain chance in the forecast. I do think highs will be around 67 tomorrow.

TUESDAY: Models cannot really agree on what’s going to happen on Tuesday as far as precipitation. The general idea is that the surface low scoots northeast and out of here. I’m going to go ahead and throw a rain chance in, but it goes down as the day passes. Highs will otherwise be in the low 70’s 

WEDNESDAY: We get a break Wednesday. 75 for the high and partly cloudy. Not too shabby. Lows will be in the middle 50’s.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY:This is where the next front comes into play. Neither of the long range models are agreeing on timing and placement of any rain, but I will maintain the rain chance. Otherwise, I think we’re looking at highs going from the middle 70’s Thursday to the upper 60’s on Friday. Lows Thursday night will be around 49.

SATURDAY: I’m going with a dry, but cooler forecast into Saturday, with highs in the upper 60’s.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: As I recover from what I’d call a successful Spina Bifida Association of Cincinnati Walk and Roll yesterday, the next update will come at you at 6 AM Monday. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses

Advertisements

Saturday 9/29 Forecast Discussion: Dry and Nice!

We’re heading for a nice day today, but starting with some fog and cool weather! Welcome to your Saturday morning forecast discussion for September 29, 2012!

TODAY: As we start the day, we’re starting with patchy fog and lows in the 50’s. With sunny skies, expect a high today around 73.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Sunday into Monday, another system moves into the Great Lakes and then drops a bit southwest. I think we’re still dry Sunday with highs around 68 and lows around 48 both Sunday and Monday. Models have good lift overspreading the area on Monday. With more moisture now being shown, I have to put rain into this forecast, but if you don’t get rain, you’ll be mostly cloudy.

TUESDAY: That little disturbance gets booted east on Tuesday. I will leave us dry and partly cloudy with highs near 70 and lows around 52.

WEDNESDAY: Rinse and repeat for Cincinnati. 75 for the high and partly cloudy. Not too shabby. Lows will be in the middle 50’s.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: This is where the next front comes into play. Neither of the long range models are agreeing on timing and placement of any rain, but I will maintain the rain chance. Otherwise, I think we’re looking at highs going from the middle 70’s Thursday to the upper 60’s on Friday. Lows Thursday night will be around 49.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

FINALLY: As previously noted, I will be at the Spina Bifida Association of Cincinnati Walk and Roll this morning at 9 AM at Miami Whitewater Forest’s Shaker Trace Trail, starting by the harbor. If you’d like to join us later this morning, please do. SBAC would love to have the support!

NEXT UPDATE: I’m back Sunday morning with another update. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses

Friday 9/28 Forecast Discussion: Drying Things Out and Warming Up

TODAY: It looks dry this afternoon, but a few showers are lingering across southern counties this morning. Highs will be around 71.

SATURDAY: The dry trend looks to be holding…so at this point I’m confident enough to say that the front will stay south enough that we’re clear of rain chances. Highs will be around 70.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Sunday into Monday, another system moves into the Great Lakes and then drops a bit southwest. Models have tried to speed things up, and are trying to introduce a chance of rain around here Monday. I can’t agree with it, so I’m keeping us dry but watching it. Highs will be in the low 70′s and lows in the upper 40′s.

TUESDAY: That little disturbance gets booted east on Tuesday. I will leave us dry and partly cloudy with highs in the middle 70’s.

WEDNESDAY: Rinse and repeat for Cincinnati. Middle 70’s, partly cloudy. Not too shabby.

THURSDAY: As I didn’t agree with the models in the Sunday/Monday time frame being a bit quicker and southwest, I also don’t agree that Thursday will be dry. I leave the low chance in, but otherwise we’re partly cloudy with highs) in the upper 70’s.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: I’m back tonight with another update. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses

Thursday 9/27 PM Forecast Discussion: Front Coming Through — But No Big Change

Good evening and welcome to your Thursday evening forecast discussion for September 27, 2012! I am feeling a bit better, and as it happens I need to go talk to my team for the Spina Bifida Association of Cincinnati’s Walk and Roll, so this update is coming out around 4:00…

TONIGHT: A cold front was shown at 2:00 to be basically bisecting the area. That front will push through as the evening progresses — but then stall just south of here. Another wave of low pressure will push along the front through tonight. I still have a chance of rain this evening…but the best chance will be east of I-71. If you live in Adams, Brown, Clermont, Clinton and Highland counties in Ohio or in most of NKY except Carroll, Gallatin and Boone Counties, you’ll stand a good chance of rain this evening. The rest of the area may just squeak by dry. It will be close. Lows tonight will range from 50 in the NW to near 60 south and east, depending on if you’re ahead of the front.

FRIDAY: I can now remove the chances of rain from Friday’s forecast, as it looks dry. Highs will be around 71.

SATURDAY: The dry trend looks to be holding…so at this point I’m confident enough to say that the front will stay south enough that we’re clear of rain chances. Highs will be around 70.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Sunday into Monday, another system moves into the Great Lakes and then gets kinda stuck there briefly. Right now, the moisture will stay north of Cincinnati, so I’ll keep things dry here, just cool. Highs will be in the low 70′s and lows in the upper 40′s.

TUESDAY: That little disturbance gets booted east on Tuesday. I will leave us dry and partly cloudy with highs in the middle 70’s.

WEDNESDAY: Rinse and repeat for Cincinnati. Middle 70’s, partly cloudy. Not too shabby.

THURSDAY: GFS wants to bring the next storm to affect us in here Thursday. For now, we’ll leave the chances low, but put them in. Again, partly cloudy and middle 70’s.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: I’m back Friday morning with another update. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses

Thursday 9/27 Discussion: Rain, Rain, Go Away, Please?

This is not going to be extremely detailed, as I’m still not doing all that great physically…but here’s today’s discussion:

TODAY/TONIGHT: It will remain rather wet and chilly as the front that influenced things yesterday very, very slowly moves south. Some forecasters out there are calling for middle 70’s. I’m not buying that, because of all the clouds and rainfall. I think we stay around 70 and drop into the upper 50’s tonight.

FRIDAY: The front continues to move southward. I think it finally stalls out in Central or Southern Kentucky. How far south it moves, will determine what happens around here. I think it’s still close enough to leave rain chances in. Highs will be in the lower 70’s again, with lows in the lower 50’s.

SATURDAY: I’m still concerned that the front will remain stuck south of here, but I’m now convinced that it’ll be just far enough south that at least folks north of the river remain dry. If you’re south of the river, I still can’t rule out a shower or storm. I still think temperatures are in the lower 70′s where rain doesn’t fall. Lows may end up in the upper 40′s and low 50′s.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Sunday into Monday, another system moves into the Great Lakes and then gets kinda stuck there briefly. Right now, the moisture will stay north of Cincinnati, so I’ll keep things dry here, just cool. Highs will be in the low 70’s and lows in the upper 40’s.

TUESDAY: That little disturbance gets booted east on Tuesday. I will leave us dry with highs in the upper 60’s.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

Next update will hopefully be tonight. I’m just not feeling well at all, so I can’t guarantee it. Until then, take care.

Jeremy

Wednesday 9/26 Forecast Discussion: The Umbrella Rules Again

Yep, it’s staying wet around Cincinnati…the question is how long? Welcome to your forecast discussion for Wednesday, September 26, 2012!

TODAY-FRIDAY: A cold front drops through today and tonight, but hangs up just south of here late tonight, remaining pretty much in place through Friday at the least. This means there will be a chance of rain all the way through this timeframe especially further to the south. The southern counties have the best shot at rain. The atmosphere won’t be exceptionally favorable for severe storms, but there will still be a low chance of one or two. This is especially true in NKY.

It doesn’t appear that this front will have much if any impact on temperatures…we’ll end up in the 70′s through the period with lows in the upper 50′s (except maybe low 60′s tonight), effectively around or just above normal.

SATURDAY: I’m still concerned that the front will remain stuck south of here. I’m leaving rain in the forecast on Saturday because my gut tells me that it’ll be close enough. The best chances will be in our southern counties. I still think temperatures are in the lower 70′s where rain doesn’t fall. Lows may end up in the upper 40′s and low 50′s.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: I do think this front finally gets out of here by Sunday into Monday as another system moves into the Great Lakes and then gets kinda stuck there. Before that occurs, expect a chance of rain to linger on Sunday (again, unless the models remain consistent, but my gut tells me to leave the chance in). Right now, the moisture won’t really be there, so I’ll keep things dry, just cool on Monday. Highs will be in the low 70’s and lows in the upper 40’s.

TUESDAY: That little disturbance gets booted east on Tuesday. I will leave us dry with highs in the upper 60’s.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us…plus you can get occasional traffic information tweets/posts:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT DISCUSSION: I should be back tonight with an update, unless warranted sooner. Until then, take care!

Jeremy

Tuesday 9/25 PM Forecast Discussion: Quite a wet one

The more things change, the more they stay the same. That seems to be the theme. Welcome to your Tuesday night forecast for September 25, 2012.

TONIGHT: Showers and storms will become more widespread. It doesn’t appear like our chances of severe weather are high. That said I think that we will hear rumbles of thunder. Of course if things change I’ll be on Facebook and Twitter to let you know. Lows will be around 60.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: The aforementioned front drops through on Wednesday, but hangs up just south of here Thursday. This means three things:

  • There will be a chance of rain all the way through this timeframe.
  • On Wednesday, with good dynamics, there IS the chance of severe weather.
  • Everything from there, depends on where the front stalls out – which means we need to watch out on Thursday and Friday as well for a severe weather potential – especially across NKY south of the metro (we’re talking Carroll, Gallatin, Owen, Grant, Pendleton, Robertson, Mason, Bracken and Lewis Counties).

It doesn’t appear that this front will have much if any impact on temperatures…we’ll end up in the 70′s through the period with lows in the 50′s and maybe low 60′s, effectively around or just above normal.

THE WEEKEND: I’m not sure what the NWS sees that indicates a dry weekend. I’m concerned that the front may still be stuck in Kentucky somewhere, close enough to influence things. I’m leaving rain in the forecast over the weekend for at least another day or two. I still think temperatures are in the lower 70′s where rain doesn’t fall. Lows may end up in the upper 40′s and low 50′s.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: I do think this front finally gets out of here Monday and Tuesday as another system moves in from the NW. Right now, the moisture won’t really be there, so I’ll keep things dry, just cool.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us…plus you can get occasional traffic information tweets/posts:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT DISCUSSION: I should be back tomorrow morning with an update, unless warranted sooner. Until then, take care!

Jeremy