Wednesday 9/5/12 PM Forecast Discussion: After Those Storms…Now What?

UPDATED 7:30 PM EDT 9/5/12…Scroll down for update if you saw this earlier.

Welcome to your PM forecast discussion for Wednesday, September 5, 2012.

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE: The worst weather has pushed east of metro Cincinnati. The watch we’ve had in effect is being cancelled west to east. I really think our chances have diminished for severe weather…that being said, watch for flooding around the area the next few hours.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY *UPDATED 7:30 PM*: Okay, after further review of things, here’s what’s going on. All indications appear to be that we may see SOME clearing tonight. However, there’s problems here:

1) High-Resolution Models still want to bring another convective line through here tonight after midnight.
2) The NAM (North American Mesoscale) model does NOT bring anything through here – but it also missed the storms we just had.
3) The global forecast models don’t have much, but they do have something out there.

With this being the case…I will go ahead and clear things out a bit tonight, but not completely, but I will also leave room for a chance of rain late – but maybe 30-40 percent at best. IF I am wrong and we do clear completely, look for a repeat of last night with fog, some of it locally dense. Tomorrow I don’t see much in the way of showers or storms…even though other forecasts do bring some in here in the afternoon…I can’t rule it out, but I will keep the forecast dry for now and if there needs to be a chance I’ll include it in tomorrow’s morning forecast.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Friday looks okay, with highs in the middle 80s. That’s before the next front moves in. SPC has us in a 5 percent chance of severe weather on Friday…which is probably about right. That next front will move through Friday night and Saturday. Saturday, at this point, looks like a washout unfortunately. Highs on Saturday will struggle just to hit the middle 70s.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: A nice couple or three days on tap after that front passes. Look for clearing skies on Sunday, and dry weather Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 70’s, approaching 80 by Tuesday and into the lower 80s by Wednesday!

Follow along on social media:
NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

The next discussion will be Thursday morning. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses

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