Wednesday Evening 9/12/12 Discussion: Here Comes the Cold?

Good evening, and welcome to your PM forecast update for September 12, 2012…we’ve had nice weather, how much longer can it go on?? In short, at least another day, then some rain (MAYBE), then nice again.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT: Rinse and repeat for Thursday. Sunny skies and temperatures that, after beginning around 62, ease upward to the middle 80′s, around 85. Thursday night, clouds increase ahead of the next front (which I’ll have more on in a second). I think we’re in the middle 60′s. I’m going with 66.

FRIDAY: Okay, some changes to the Friday forecast — which also necessitates changes to this weekend’s forecast (for the better, but more on that in a second). The next front comes in Friday morning. It currently appears any precipitation we see at all, will be post-frontal. Moisture isn’t going to be abundant here. Any showers we get, will be brief and by Friday night we’re dry. Because of the clouds and showers, I need to drop Friday’s temperature several degrees…I think we’re looking at 80 for highs.

THIS WEEKEND: A NICE weekend is on tap again! Sunny skies will be the rule. I look for highs around 75 Saturday, with 77 Sunday and 78 Monday.

LOOKING AHEAD: Okay, I teased this this morning…there will be a cool down from even the 70’s early next week. The next front comes in on Monday Night and Tuesday. Models are agreeing with this front being fairly potent…so some rain looks like a good bet in this timeframe. Will it bring severe weather? Too early to call…but rain is a good bet. Highs still remain in the 70’s on Tuesday. Beyond this…here come the changes. The front is out of here Tuesday night, skies clear. That means temperatures might just drop into the 40’s, and I can’t rule out that sheltered locations get into the LOWER 40’s. If you are sensitive to these temperature changes, as I am…buy some stock in Tylenol, and maybe NyQuil and Benadryl while you’re at it (I forget the company names). Seriously.

Beyond that…here’s what is going on. I’ll preface this by saying, this is EXTREMELY long range, up to 15 days out…and is likely to change. If you can believe it, in the longer range, things may get even colder. If the GFS is to be believed, it sets up a 516 millibar vortex north of the Canadian maritimes heading towards the end of the month. I’ll attach a screenshot from WxGeek Pro below.

20120912-174223.jpg

Yeah, that signifies a very strong upper level trough. What about the surface? Well…below is the surface map (also a WxGeek Pro screenshot) with 1000-500 mb thickness lines. In winter these lines are useful to predict rain vs snow. The red line closest to the OH/KY/IN Tri-State is the 558 line. Won’t be cold enough for snow, but wouldya look up there in extreme northern New England? That IS cold enough for snow…and I wouldn’t be surprised if a few flakes fly up there late in the month.

20120912-174434.jpg

Again, that’s all long range — meaning it can and WILL change multiple times between now and then — so stay with us here at NKYWx.

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Next discussion on Thursday morning…until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses

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