Monday Evening 9/17 Forecast: Rain is Here

Well, here comes that next rainmaker, and for some locations it may be a doozy. Welcome to your PM forecast for Monday, September 17, 2012.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY: Rain becomes widespread this evening…how much you see is going to depend on where you are. If you’re over toward Maysville, Vanceburg, West Union and Hillsboro you’ll probably see more rain (maybe 1.5″) than Versailles, Carrollton, Brookville or Connersville (which will likely get less than a half inch). Why? 2 reasons:

  • This is a very winter-like storm, and indeed it’s really two systems; a wave to the southwest and a cold front northwest.
  • The favorable moisture transport region will be off to the east ahead of the aforementioned wave.
  • The consequences are that the highest totals should be east of town and it gets lighter as you go west. I think around a half inch of rain is likely in the metro, before the front comes through and rain begins to taper off late Tuesday afternoon. Either way, temperatures Monday night and Tuesday will be held to the mid 60’s at best (I don’t buy the NWS forecast of upper 60’s tomorrow), and I still think that they begin to fall after the cold front passes, especially west, into the upper 50’s.

    TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: Behind this front…changes are still coming. Significant ones. We’ll start with Tuesday night…skies will clear behind the front. That, combined with a northwest flow, should allow temperatures to plummet — but not as far as I previously believed — because the winds will probably also keep temperatures from falling off as far as they would otherwise. I’m going middle 40’s, around 45. Wednesday, we are dry, but that northwest flow keeps us from warming past about 66. Wednesday night still may be our coldest night so far this season — I am going with 41 but do not be surprised if you see temperatures in the upper thirties, especially in rural areas with good radiational cooling! Ouch, for those of us sensitive to that. However, we’ll make quite an impressive recovery Thursday, as high pressure scoots east ahead of the next little storm…on south winds I think we could push the mid 70’s.

    FRIDAY-SATURDAY: That little system I mentioned should bring our next rain chance. Models still differ on a number of key points, so for right now we’ll leave a chance of rain in for both Friday and Saturday, probably due to daytime heating more than anything. Highs will be nice on Friday, around 75…Saturday we’ll drop back into the lower 70’s although I can’t rule out needing to go cooler.

    SUNDAY-MONDAY: Things clear up nicely on Sunday, and we end up in the mid 60’s both Sunday and Monday with lows in the middle 40’s again.

    SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow us for updates as this next event moves in:

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    Next update will be Tuesday morning unless warranted. Until then, take care!

    Jeremy Moses

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