Monday Morning 9/17 Forecast Discussion: Here Comes the Rain Again…

Yep, the rain is back. The question is, how much rain? Welcome to your Monday morning discussion for September 17, 2012!

TODAY: Yes, we’ll have rain later today, but as you get ready for your morning commute, it’ll be dry with temperatures in the 60’s in most places. A few spots may be in the upper 50’s. Of course the story of the day is rain developing in the afternoon west of Cincinnati, but I do think the majority of the day is just clouds and a few peeks of sun. As for temperatures, we will make it into the upper 70’s once again.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY: Of course, that rain I mentioned moves in tonight in earnest. How much? It’s going to depend on where you are. If you’re over toward Maysville, Vanceburg, West Union and Hillsboro you’ll probably see more rain (I think 1-2″ with isolated 3″ is a good bet here) than Versailles, Carrollton, Brookville or Connersville (which will likely get less than an inch). Why? 2 reasons:

  • This is a very winter-like storm, and indeed it’s really two systems; a wave to the southwest and a cold front northwest.
  • The favorable moisture transport region will be off to the east ahead of the aforementioned wave.
  • The consequences are that the highest totals should be east of Cincinnati, with gradually lighter totals west. NWS Wilmington thinks that around a tenth of an inch is plausible for the west. I do not buy this sharp of a cutoff. I think around a half inch of rain is likely. Either way, temperatures Monday night and Tuesday will hold around 63, and I still think that they begin to fall after the cold front passes, especially west, into the upper 50’s.

    TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: Behind THAT front…changes are coming. Significant ones. We’ll start with Tuesday night…skies will clear behind the front. That, combined with a northwest flow, should allow temperatures to plummet into the middle 40’s. Wednesday, we are dry, but that northwest flow keeps us from warming past about 66. Wednesday night may be our coldest night so far this season — I am going with 42, but do not be surprised if you see temperatures in the upper thirties, especially in rural areas with good radiational cooling! Ouch, for those of us sensitive to that. However, we’ll make quite an impressive recovery Thursday, as high pressure scoots east ahead of the next little storm…I will go lower 70’s right now.

    FRIDAY-SATURDAY: That little system I mentioned should bring our next rain chance. Models differ on a number of key points, so for right now we’ll put a chance of rain in for both Friday and Saturday, probably due to daytime heating more than anything. Highs will be nice on Friday, around 75…Saturday we’ll drop back into the lower 70’s.

    SUNDAY: Things clear up nicely on Sunday, and we end up in the middle or upper 60’s.

    SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow us for updates as this next event moves in:

    NKYWx on Facebook
    NKYWx on Twitter

    NEXT DISCUSSION: I’ll bring our next update late this afternoon or this evening, probably around 6 PM. Until then, take care!

    Jeremy Moses

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