Tuesday Morning 9/18 Forecast Discussion: Rain’s Going Away…Eventually

It’s a wet and muggy morning across the area. How long will it last? Welcome to your Tuesday morning forecast discussion for September 18, 2012!

TODAY: The rain is scattered about, for the most part. It’ll remain that way most of the morning. The front, though, is just off to the west bisecting Indiana. That will sweep through this morning. I am questioning whether the timing is still such that afternoon temperatures could fall off as cold air starts moving in. Right now, I’m going 66 for a high today, but if the colder air moves in quicker, I can see us falling to near 60 by evening. So, we won’t move all that much today.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: The BIG change arrives tonight. The front will have cleared the area…this means that our skies will also clear. I do believe we drop into the middle 40’s. Because northwest winds will be strong in the evening, I don’t see us going lower than 44-46 (you need light wind for good radiational cooling to truly take hold and I just don’t see that happening before midnight). By Wednesday, we’re set up for a nice, if slightly chilly, dry day…with highs around 66 again with winds being variable between northwest and west. Wednesday night will be similar to tonight…but because the winds should be calmer I do think we may see lows in the lower 40’s with some spots maybe around 38-39 degrees.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: Thursday’s forecast is pretty much a carbon copy of Wednesday’s, except warmer on southerly winds. We’ll end up around 71. By Thursday night the next front starts its slow approach, so I’m increasing clouds just a little bit and going partly cloudy with lows also a bit warmer as a result…around 48.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: This is the timeframe for our next system. Models continue to disagree on timing. The GFS is faster, suggesting that I should leave the precipitation chance in. The Euro has slowed…and is bringing the rain chances in on Saturday instead. For now, I’ll leave this forecast intact because the Euro keeps backing things up timing-wise. So, Friday afternoon through about midday Saturday we stand a chance of rain, with otherwise partly cloudy skies. It isn’t a high chance, so don’t cancel your weekend plans yet. Highs on Friday will still reach 73 with good warm air advection. Saturday, I think we’re around 65, with the aforementioned chance of rain the first half of the day. Lows will be around 53 on Friday night and then around 48 Saturday night.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: I do believe we’re dry in this timeframe under partly cloudy skies. Highs will end up in the middle 60’s, around 66 on Sunday and the upper 60’s to near 70 on Monday.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along as I track the plunge of cooler air:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

Also, I forget sometimes, you don’t necessarily need to follow those links as there are widgets on the site — but if for some reason one of those Facebook and/or Twitter widgets on the right side breaks, that’s why I include the links here.

NEXT DISCUSSION: These next couple days will be fluid, as I’m once again busy at home and, as if that wasn’t enough, with getting my team set for the Spina Bifida walk (check last Wednesday morning’s post if you aren’t aware). So, I’ll endeavor to get the forecast out by 5:00 PM tonight and then on a 5 AM/5 PM schedule on Wednesday and Thursday — but I make no promises about those times especially Thursday night. Until tonight, take care — especially on the roads please!

Jeremy Moses

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