9/20 Morning Forecast Discussion: Cold Again, Then Warmer, Then Cold Again

Another morning where we’re cold…so, how long will this last? Welcome to your Thursday Morning forecast discussion for September 20, 2012!

TODAY-TONIGHT: Models are in rare form today…they cannot agree but on one thing: that a weak cold front will cross the area later today. They don’t agree on the effects it will have on temperatures or dewpoints, or winds for that matter. The result is that I am keeping the forecast exactly where I’ve had it all week. Highs will reach the lower 70’s today on a southerly flow. Tonight’s lows will be around 52.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Friday will start off fine, but clouds will increase. I now have to increase the rain chance Friday afternoon and night and still allow a small chance on Saturday. This is due to a two part system. The first part is a wave that moves through on Friday afternoon and Friday night. This will bring the best chances of rain to the area, BUT the heaviest may stay just north of Cincinnati. Depending on how quickly this wave scoots through, the Saturday forecast may be changed, but right now it looks like rain ends from this one early to mid-morning Saturday. Now…the second system is MUCH stronger. It’s a closed low pressure diving out of Minnesota, with a cold front trailing it. This will scoot through rapidly Saturday night. As things stand right now, most models want to keep the precipitation north of I-70. I am not going to completely buy into that, but the chances are certainly higher up there. As mentioned above, I’m allowing a slight chance of rain Saturday — perhaps diurnally enhanced if the timing is right on Saturday afternoon but certainly in the morning. I do NOT expect a significant severe weather threat right now on either day. Friday’s highs will be around 75. Lows on Friday night will fall to around 58 and then Saturday we make it to 67.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: You thought Wednesday morning was cold? That was just a precursor. First thing’s first: The front clears the area by Saturday night. While I think clouds will decrease, it will only be enough to allow temperatures to fall into the 46-49 degree range. As we go into Sunday, the cold air establishes itself in our area. Highs on Sunday will struggle just to reach about 63. That’s it. Sunday night, the clouds aren’t there…temperatures will respond accordingly, and we MIGHT have our first more widespread frost of the year Monday morning as temperatures fall to around 40! Outlying locations in rural areas may fall as low as 36. Brrrrrrrr! Monday afternoon is set up for a slightly warmer day — and I do mean “slightly” — as we’ll reach 65 under sunny skies.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: As high pressure moves east during the midweek timeframe, I think there will be more “slight” warming each day. Highs will range from 66-71 and lows will be between 47 and 52.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

FINALLY: Thanks for bearing with me the last day or two, especially yesterday. It was not a good day on Wednesday for yours truly and I appreciate you all hanging on as I had to put real life on the front burner, so to speak. I am hopeful that today will be more positive.

NEXT DISCUSSION: We may get things back to normal tonight…so I’m hoping to bring the next update around 6 PM this evening. Until then, take care, and once again stay warm!

Jeremy Moses

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