Monday 9/24/12 Forecast Discussion: Getting Unsettled

Another COLD morning this morning, but we’re on the way back up! Welcome to your (slightly late) Monday Morning forecast discussion for September 24, 2012! I apologize for not having this earlier – but, as expected, I’m fighting off some pain this morning. Ouch.

TODAY: We still have a FROST ADVISORY in effect this morning until 10 AM. Here’s a look at low temperatures at KYMesonet stations across the area as of 7:45:

  • 4 Miles south of Burlington, Boone County: 38º
  • Highland Heights, Campbell County: 39º
  • 2 Miles east of Carrollton, Carroll County: 37º
  • 5 Miles east of Owenton, Owen County: 35º
  • 3 Miles SW of Maysville, Mason County: 37º
  • 6 Miles west of Vanceburg, Lewis County: 34º

As we go through the day, we’ll bounce back from these lows, ending up around 67º.  Skies will remain partly cloudy.

TUESDAY: Tomorrow starts a time period that looks quite unsettled around here. The first disturbance drops in tonight and tomorrow, with a chance of rain. I have to change this part of the forecast. As you guys know, I’ve been going with the best chances in the afternoon…but it looks like the best dynamics are here in the morning. That said, it could rain at any time. I expect lows around 47º tonight, and highs near 73º on Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Another front drops through on Wednesday, but hangs up just south of here Thursday and then models are depicting a surface low organizing Thursday night and riding up the front, while bringing the front back north. I should note that it will not rain everywhere, nor will it rain all day, but some scattered showers and storms will be around through this period. I also think there will be some diurnal reasoning to the timing, meaning the best chances will be in the afternoons. It doesn’t appear that this front will have much if any impact on temperatures…we’ll end up in the 70′s through the period with lows in the 50′s, effectively around normal.

SATURDAY: I am changing this forecast, as much as I’d like to not have to. Here’s the deal. That front is now depicted to STILL be just south of here. I’m inserting a slight, and I do mean slight, convection enhanced chance of rain in the afternoon. The best chances will be south of the river, and closer to I-64, but the front is too close to rule anybody out. Highs will be in the lower 70’s.

SUNDAY: Models can’t agree on this, but it does appear that another low may lift up along the front, which will still, yes still, be in the area. That means the chance of rain goes back up on Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will hover near 70º.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us…plus you can get occasional traffic information tweets/posts:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT DISCUSSION: I’ll be back, and hopefully in less pain, tonight around 6 PM. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s