Monday 10/1 Forecast Discussion: Rainy Days are Back

We had a nice weekend…but the rain is back with a vengeance. Welcome to your Monday morning forecast discussion for October 1st, 2012!

TODAY: Models have good lift overspreading the area later today with a surface low moving across the Ohio Valley. They also show a mid/upper level trough moving east out of the central US. I continue to leave a rain chance in the forecast. I do think highs will be around 67 today.

TUESDAY: Models cannot really agree on what’s going to happen on Tuesday as far as precipitation. The general idea is that the surface low scoots northeast through and out. Now, here’s the problem. Depending on the track, which I think cuts across the area somewhere just west of here, I think we need to watch severe weather potential. Highs will otherwise be in the low 70’s.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: I still think we get a break Wednesday with 75 for the high and partly cloudy skies. Not too shabby. Lows will be in the middle 50’s. At this point, I can also remove the rain chance Thursday as it looks now that the bulk of it comes Friday, and will go mid 70’s.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY:This is where the next front comes into play. Neither of the long range models are agreeing on timing and placement of things (the Euro keeps us dry Friday but then brings rain into the weekend forecast while the GFS and Canadian keep Friday rather wet), but I will maintain the rain chance for Friday. Otherwise, I think we’re looking at highs in the upper 60’s on Friday, and then the bottom drops out over the weekend with highs only in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s, lows in the lower 40’s Friday and Saturday and lows on Sunday in the upper 30’s. Brrrrrr.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: Our next update will be tonight unless needed sooner. Until then, take care and stay dry!

Jeremy Moses

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