Tuesday 10/2 Forecast Discussion: Severe Weather Possible Today

We’re dry this morning, but that might lead to a chance of severe weather later today! Welcome to your morning forecast for Tuesday, October 2, 2012…

TODAY/TONIGHT: There continue to be indications that we’ll have some decent instability here later today. We’ve got a few scattered showers and storms this morning, but many of us are staying dry. We’ll jump to the low 70’s later today, that’s when this instability comes into play.

The Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma has placed the entire area in a SLIGHT RISK for today and tonight, with damaging winds and hail as the main threats. However, an isolated tornado is possible given modest turning of wind with height. We’ll watch it.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Some very nice weather is in store. Look for highs around 74 on Wednesday and 78 on Thursday under mostly sunny skies.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: This is a tricky forecast. Models continue to differ on timing of rain. The Euro has been consistent that the best chances come Saturday and Saturday night with a second wave. The Global Forecast System model had the better chances coming before that, on Thursday night through Friday evening. The latter model is now trending towards the Euro. This leads me to believe that the Euro should be taken seriously. I’m going to keep a rain chance in the forecast Thursday night through Friday evening, just in case. However, I’m now also inserting, unfortunately, a rain chance for Saturday and Saturday night. Don’t cancel those plans, but be ready to dodge a few showers. Temperatures will be on a general downhill trend, from 70 on Friday to 60 on Saturday, with lows in the upper 40’s both days.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: It still looks like we’ll be dry on Sunday, so we’ll salvage the latter half of the weekend, and a decent Monday in terms of sunshine. The bad news? It won’t feel so nice. I’m inclined to go lower than the NWS, and in line with other meteorologists. I’m going 58 on Sunday and 60 on Monday. Lows both mornings could fall as low as 36! OUCH.

SOCIAL MEDIA: I’ll be tracking the latest on the severe weather chances all day on Facebook (which will autopost to Twitter). Feel free to check out one or both:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT DISCUSSION: I will play things by ear here — if severe storms are in the area, I will NOT do a PM discussion as attention will be focused on what’s happening here. Otherwise, the next update will be up by 6 PM tonight. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses

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