Friday 10/12 AM Discussion: Watching the Weekend

I am watching this weekend closely…if you’ve got outdoor activities on Sunday, you too should pay attention. Welcome to your Friday morning forecast for October 12, 2012!

TODAY/SATURDAY: Today and Saturday both will be dry with highs around 62 this afternoon, behind the front swinging through this morning, and 75 on Saturday ahead of the next cold front as winds veer around to the south. Low temperatures will be in the 50’s tonight. I’ll go 61 for Saturday night, but I hesitate to go higher, even with clouds and warm air advection, which I am not convinced will be strong enough to keep temperatures close to 65 like I see with some forecasts. Guidance wants to place us around 60 which I’m much more inclined to do.

SUNDAY: I continue to leave that rain chance on Sunday, because I still think that the next front will have something to it. At this point, I am becoming more concerned about there being enough instability for storms, and *potentially* strong ones. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a 15 percent SLIGHT RISK for Sunday…so I’m just telling you, keep an eye on that. We will be back into the low 70’s Sunday afternoon which may also help instability. IF, as SPC indicates, a squall line were to form (and the North American Mesoscale Model at least backs it up with the Simulated Radar product showing a line pushing through here at 2 PM Sunday), then damaging winds would be considered the primary threat with large hail also possible owing to colder temperatures at higher levels. Keep an eye on this one if you have outdoor plans on Sunday. It may get nasty in the afternoon.

MONDAY: Back to dry conditions and highs around 66 on Monday afternoon, after starting with lows in the mid 40’s.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: As of right now, I’ll leave us dry with highs in the low 70’s and lows in the upper 40’s.

NEXT THURSDAY: Looking like the next front comes in. This one looks stronger. I put in the rain chance with the PM discussion yesterday, I’ll leave it with this one. Modeling does seem to support it with a low going negative tilt as it pushes east across the Great Lakes region on Thursday afternoon. Watch this closely…timing is key on what this does. An afternoon event would bring severe weather chances back…while a morning event isn’t so bad because we won’t have great instability. Again, watch this one.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along as I watch our skies and, as warranted, our streets:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: The next update will be tonight. Until then, enjoy the end of the workweek!

Jeremy

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