Friday 10/12 PM Forecast: Strong Winds, Severe Weather Sunday?

Welcome to the Friday afternoon discussion for October 12, 2012…we’re going to get straight into the meat of this thing today, as there are some things to watch for the second half of the weekend:

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: We’ll drop to near 40 tonight under clear skies. Frost may form in spots, so protect those plants. Then, we warm nicely to 75 on Saturday ahead of the next cold front as winds veer around to the south and strengthen. There is an elevated warm front pushing north right now, and it’s expected to come through tonight, but I think it comes through dry. I stood firm with 61 for Saturday night, and it looks like I will be right. Even with a southerly wind of 10-15 MPH, I didn’t buy 65 for lows all along.

SUNDAY: I continue to leave that rain chance on Sunday, because I still think that the next front will have something to it. At this point, we have all become concerned about there being enough instability and shear for storms, and *potentially* strong ones. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a 15 percent SLIGHT RISK for Sunday. We will be back into the low 70’s Sunday afternoon which may also help instability, especially near I-75 and points east. IF, as SPC indicates, a squall line were to form (which would probably occur in the early afternoon across parts of Indiana, and the NAM still supports a line trying to form), then damaging winds would be considered the primary threat with large hail also possible owing to colder temperatures at higher levels. Keep an eye on this one if you have outdoor plans on Sunday. It may get nasty in the afternoon.

Another concern is strong winds ahead of the line of storms that should form. Wind profiles indicate winds to almost 60 MPH at 5000 feet above the ground, and to 75 mph at the 500 millibar level, or 18,000 feet up. That’s concerning because with the heating of the day, we can mix those winds down to the surface. Should that happen, we’d have potential for minor wind damage even before the storms come in. Something to watch, for sure. I will be here all weekend long watching this threat.

MONDAY: Back to dry conditions and highs around 66 on Monday afternoon, after starting with lows in the mid 40’s.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: As of right now, I’ll leave us dry with highs in the low 70’s and lows in the upper 40’s.

NEXT THURSDAY: Looking like the next front comes in. This one looks stronger. I put in the rain chance with the PM discussion yesterday, I’ll leave it with this one. Modeling does seem to support it with a low pushing east across the Great Lakes region on Thursday afternoon. Watch this closely…timing is key on what this does. An afternoon event would bring severe weather chances back…while a morning event isn’t so bad because we won’t have great instability. Again, watch this one CAREFULLY.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along as I watch our skies and, as warranted, our streets:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: Because of the concerns about Sunday afternoon, we’re going to break from the longstanding schedule of one post a day during the weekend. There will be two posts both Saturday and Sunday. Enjoy your Friday night!

Jeremy

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