Saturday AM 10/13 Discussion: Big Warmup, then Big Storms

Welcome to your Saturday morning discussion for October 13, 2012! We’ll jump straight in with things again this morning:

TODAY AND TONIGHT: We warm nicely to 75 this afternoon ahead of the next cold front as winds veer around to the south and strengthen. Guidance this morning wanted to keep things in the low 70’s, but I believe sunshine should warm us nicely. I stood firm with 61 for tonight, and it looks on target.

SUNDAY: It’s a complex situation tomorrow. At this point, we have all become concerned about there being enough instability and shear for storms, and *potentially* strong ones. The Storm Prediction Center kept us in a 15 percent SLIGHT RISK for tomorrow. We will be back into the low 70’s which may also help instability, especially (I feel) near I-75 and points east. IF, as SPC indicates, a squall line were to form (which would probably occur in the early afternoon to the west), then damaging winds would be considered the primary threat with large hail also possible owing to colder temperatures at higher levels. Keep an eye on this one if you have outdoor plans. The timing looks to be between 3-8 PM.

Another concern is strong winds ahead of the line of storms that should form. Wind profiles indicate winds to almost 60 MPH at 5000 feet above the ground, and to 75 mph at the 500 millibar level, or 18,000 feet up. That’s concerning because with the heating of the day, we can mix those winds down to the surface. Should that happen, we’d have potential for minor wind damage even before the storms come in. Something to watch, for sure. I will be here all weekend long watching this threat.

MONDAY: Back to dry conditions and highs around 66 on Monday afternoon, after starting with lows in the mid 40’s.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: As of right now, I’ll leave us dry with highs in the low 70’s and lows in the upper 40’s.

THURSDAY/NEXT FRIDAY: Looking like the next front comes in. This one looks stronger. I put in the rain chance with the PM discussion Thursday. Now, I’ve got to add it for Friday as well as it appears this may slow down.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along as I watch our skies and, as warranted, our streets:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: Because of the concerns about Sunday afternoon, we’re going to break from the longstanding schedule of one post a day during the weekend. The next update will be this evening. Until then, have a great Saturday!

Jeremy

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