Sunday 10/14 Early Morning Discussion: Storms This Afternoon, But Windy Before, Too

Welcome to your first of three planned updates here on northernkyweather.com today…I’ll jump straight into things, as there’s a lot to discuss for today:

TODAY: It’s a complex situation today. At this time, it does appear there will be enough wind shear for storms to form, but the instability is actually more marginal. That’s typical of fall events, as storm development takes less destabilization than it would in say, early May. The Storm Prediction Center kept us in a SLIGHT RISK today. Once our squall line forms this afternoon, damaging winds would be considered the primary threat (owing to the upper level winds — see below). Hail and tornadoes are also possible (the latter being a more isolated threat, but one to take seriously). The best threat is between 2 PM and 8 PM, and I still think that that’s especially true west of a line from Wilmington, OH to Georgetown, OH to Brooksville, Kentucky. Once you get east of that line (Highland, Adams, Mason and Lewis counties), the atmosphere will have begun to stabilize as the storms move in, but even here there’s still a severe weather threat. We will be back into the middle 70’s this afternoon.

Another concern is strong winds ahead of the line of storms that should form. Upper level winds appear to be around 45 knots at 850 millibars, or about 5000 feet and near 65 knots at 500 millibars or 18,000 feet. That’s concerning because with the heating of the day, we can mix those winds down to the surface. There will also be a tight pressure gradient especially north and west of here. If that gradient moves southeast, and we mix those upper level winds down a bit, we’d have potential for minor wind damage even before the storms come in. There is now a WIND ADVISORY for the entire area today from 10 AM to 8 PM for wind gusts as high as 45-50 MPH…and again, that’s before any storms!

TONIGHT/MONDAY: Back to dry conditions and highs around 65 on Monday afternoon, after starting with lows in the mid 40’s. I cannot rule out showers continuing this evening, but they should diminish.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: As of right now, I’ll leave us dry with highs in the low 70’s and lows in the upper 40’s.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Looking like another complex situation. I put in the rain chance for Thursday with the PM discussion this past Thursday, and for Friday this morning. Now, it looks like Saturday we’ll be under the influence of an upper low, and so…sigh…the chance of showers needs to be added for this period as well. Highs will be in the lower to middle 60’s.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along as I watch our skies and, as warranted, our streets:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: The blog will be updated twice more today: once at noon and again this evening, storms permitting. Most of today’s updates WILL BE via social media — so please check the above links! At times there will be a heavy volume of information (I can almost guarantee our social media “Storm Mode” will be implemented at some point this afternoon)…but if we should call out your community for a warning, please heed that warning! PLEASE STAY SAFE and STAY ALERT!

Jeremy

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