Tuesday 10/16 Morning Discussion: Another Nice Day

We’re dry for another day, but there is a change on the way once again as the roller coaster ride continues. Welcome to your Tuesday morning forecast for October 16, 2012.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: Today looks dry (as I said above), with highs around 64. Lows tonight will be around 48. I went 43 this morning, and that was too warm, as the official reporting sites are already in the 30’s except CVG. Oops. Never underestimate cold air.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT: As we head into tomorrow late day, a complex, multi-part storm will move east towards our area. Highs will be in the low to middle 70’s. Myself and my friend Corey Ecton of Severe Weather Concepts had some concern that there could be a severe threat for Wednesday, but now it’s unlikely. I do think much of the day is dry, but the rain moves in after sunset. I will not, however, totally rule out something screwy happening. Tomorrow night we’ll only fall to the lower 50’s, even with all the rain.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: That complex situation mentioned above continues through this period. At this point, I continue to believe there’ll be a rain chance through this period, with an upper low in play especially Thursday and Friday. Timing seemed to have sped up a bit, but I’m still not ready to completely pull rain from the Saturday forecast. (For what it’s worth, NWS Wilmington has done so.) I’ll leave the low chance in, especially east of town, and will give this a couple more runs to resolve completely before I pull that away. Highs will be around 55 on Thursday and 58-59 on Friday and Saturday. Lows through this period will be in the 40-45 degree range, the cooler temperatures being Friday night and possibly on Saturday night as well. I have been back and forth on the low temperature forecast. I don’t think most locations are below 40, but I cannot rule out a few places doing that.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: We will dry out for sure in this period. Here’s the issue: Guidance is suggesting highs around 68 both Sunday and Monday. I find it hard to believe we’ll warm up that much on Sunday, sunshine or no. I only see 63 and that’s where I’m going. Monday looks more likely to hit that 68 degree mark. Lows will be around 47 Sunday night.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along as I watch our skies and, as warranted, our streets:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: The next update will be tonight after 6. Until then, take care!

Jeremy

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