Monday 10/22 AM Discussion: Marked Warmup Today!

NOTE: I will go into a long discussion of what’s in the longer range, past 7 days, at the end of this. Therefore, this is a long post! Sorry!

After a very nice Sunday that saw us in the middle 60’s, it’ll feel even better today…enjoy it because this doesn’t last! Welcome to your forecast for Monday morning, October 22, 2012!

TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Highs will warm to the mid 70’s today, and then we could close in on 80 degrees tomorrow and Wednesday with lows in the 50’s all the way through Wednesday night.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: This forecast is tough to pin down, because each model run backs the rain chances up further. Now it’s looking like rain doesn’t get here until Friday night. At this time, I’ll go ahead and yank the rain chances on Thursday and Thursday night, but I’ll leave them in Friday and Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 70’s Thursday and then in the upper 60’s to around 70 Friday. Saturday the bottom really begins to fall out, as we’ll struggle to reach 60 with showers around. Lows through the period remain in the 50’s.

SUNDAY: At this point, Sunday looks dry, but cold. Highs will only reach the low 50’s. I think some locations north of the I-275 loop will barely reach 50. Lows Sunday morning will be in the upper 30’s or near 40.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK: Looking ahead, it still looks like a major blast of cold air will move in after next weekend. Both the European and GFS forecast models are trying to bring a frigid (by October standards) air mass in here, and they now have support from the Canadian forecast model, too. (The NAM does not go out that far.) Highs in the 40’s may be all we can do for the middle of next week and at least two models are giving me cause to say “uh-oh”. I have to give due credit to Josh Ketchen over at Ohio Valley Forecasting Center for pointing this out, and I do agree with what he’s thinking.

To sum up, the European model has us solidly in the refrigerator at Day 9, with the 540 thickness line and the 5000 foot freezing line both WELL south of Cincinnati, and an upper low in PA. (The placement of the 540 thickness and 850 freezing lines usually dictate the line between rain which is usually south of those lines and snow. I may detail that later in a future post.) IF (and I must stress IF, this is way out there) it can draw in energy from what is currently Invest 99L, which by that point a couple of the models have turned 99L into Tropical Storm or even Hurricane Sandy and have had it make landfall on the east coast which both the Canadian and the European are trying to do, then that upper low would cause some serious havoc with almost a 1991 “Perfect Storm” type scenario. It is too early to call this one. Stay tuned and I’ll fine tune this as we close in on that time frame. For now, we’ll just say pay attention to later forecasts if your plans send you to the northeastern US. Whether 99L/Sandy and that upper low merge or not, one or both will have impacts on the northeast early next week. And I’m just telling you, if that merge does happen significant snows would be LIKELY somewhere close.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along as I watch our skies and occasionally provide traffic updates:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: As we’re looking dry, I may only update the blog once per day. I will probably do mini-updates on social media instead, late in the afternoon or early in the evening. Therefore, the next update to the blog will likely be Tuesday morning. Until then, enjoy the nice weather and take care!

Jeremy

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3 thoughts on “Monday 10/22 AM Discussion: Marked Warmup Today!

  1. So for those of us who don’t have such great memory for weather details, what exactly does a 1991 “Perfect Storm” scenario include? And I’m assuming you mean here in the tri-state, and not on the East Coast, right?

    • Good question. In 1991, Hurricane Grace merged with a low pressure and associated cold front off the east coast of the US. That became a hurricane in its own right and did extensive damage to the entire east coast. However, this situation is different, as it won’t be able to turn into a hurricane owing to its location over land. That said, again, keep in mind this is not a guarantee to occur. Sandy could take a turn northeast and away from the US and not merge with the low. Also, the 1991 storm didn’t affect Cincinnati. This one could have more of an impact due to its inland location IF it occurs, and given the location of the 540 thickness and 850mb freezing lines, any precipitation here would be snow. An exact impact is too early to call.

  2. Thanks for the explanation. I’m from the East Coast and my whole family still lives in Delaware. I must’ve been in college in New Orleans at the time of Grace. I’ll make sure the family keeps an eye on the weather, and of course I’ll be reading your discussion every day! Thx!

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