Tuesday 10/23 AM Discussion: Watching This Weekend and Early Next Week!

NOTE: I will go into a long discussion of what’s in the longer range, past 7 days, at the end of this. Therefore, this is once again a long post! Sorry!

It was not a bad Monday around here with highs in the 70’s! Enjoy the next couple days…it’s going to all screech to a halt soon. Welcome to your forecast for Tuesday morning, October 23, 2012!

TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Highs will warm to the upper 70’s today, and we could close in on 80 degrees Wednesday with lows in the 50’s all the way through Wednesday night. Here’s the problem: we’ve got a couple disturbances moving around high pressure to our south. I can’t totally rule out a few showers, BUT much of that will be north.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: This forecast is tough to pin down, because each model run backs the rain chances up further. Now it’s looking like rain doesn’t get here until Friday night. I’ll leave the rain chance in for Friday night and Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 70’s Thursday and then in the upper 60’s to around 70 Friday. Saturday the bottom really begins to fall out, as we’ll struggle to reach 60 with those showers around. Lows through the period remain in the 50’s.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: At this point, Sunday and Monday both look dry, but cold. Highs will only reach the low 50’s. I think some locations north of the I-275 loop will barely reach 50. Lows Sunday morning will be in the upper 30’s or near 40, and on Monday morning it may get frosty here with lows in the mid 30’s.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK: Looking ahead, it still looks like a major blast of cold air will move in past the 7 day period. Both the European and Canadian forecast models are trying to bring a frigid (by October standards) air mass in here, and they now have support from the NOGAPS forecast model, too. The GFS was actually out there by itself yesterday (I hadn’t seen that 00z run)…it’s farther east, but is trying to come back west. (The NAM cannot see out 7 to 10 days.) Highs in the 40’s may be all we can do for the middle of next week and at least two of all of those models are giving me cause to say “uh-oh”.

To sum up, the European model has us solidly in the refrigerator as we roll into next week, with the 540 thickness line and the 5000 foot freezing line both WELL south of Cincinnati, and an upper low eventually moving toward PA from an interesting direction…westward! (The placement of the 540 thickness and 850 freezing lines usually dictate the line between rain which is usually south of those lines and snow. I may detail that later in a future post.) The Canadian looks very similar with the same thing. IF (and I must stress IF, this is way out there) it can draw in energy from what is currently Tropical Storm Sandy as it makes the run up the east coast, then that upper low would cause some serious havoc with almost a 1991 “Perfect Storm” type scenario. It is still entirely too early to call this one. Stay tuned and I’ll fine tune this as we close in on that time frame. For now, we’ll just say pay attention to later forecasts if your plans send you to the northeastern US. Whether Sandy and that upper low merge or not, one or both will have impacts on the northeast early next week. And I’m just telling you, if that merge does happen significant snows would be LIKELY somewhere close.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along as I watch our skies and occasionally provide traffic updates:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: As we’re looking dry, I may only update the blog once per day. I will probably do mini-updates on social media instead, late in the afternoon or early in the evening. Therefore, the next update to the blog will likely be Wednesday morning unless I do a special like last night. Until then, enjoy the nice weather and take care!

Jeremy

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