Long Range Discussion 10/24: Strong Northeastern Storm Probable, Cincinnati Impact Uncertain

Good afternoon everyone! This discussion will deal with the long range impacts of what is currently Hurricane Sandy and a cold front that will pass through the area this weekend.

RIGHT NOW: At 2:00 PM EDT, Sandy is located near Jamaica with winds of 80 MPH and central pressure of 973 millibars.

SANDY TRACK: At this point, the NHC still has Sandy moving from Jamaica, across Cuba, then up through the Bahamas and parallel to the east coast of the US.

MEANWHILE: An incoming cold front will cross the Cincinnati area Friday night and Saturday before pushing east and coming to a position near the Appalachian Mountains.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: The models have now come into pretty good agreement. The GFS has joined what was already a decent consensus of the European, Canadian, and NOGAPS. For the purposes of this, I will go ahead and tell you that the positioning of the cold air is much the same on all models.

GFS: That GFS model now has the low moving onshore pretty close to Portland, ME with a sub-960 mb pressure.

CANADIAN: The Canadian GGEM model has a 946 low near Boston or Providence.

EUROPEAN: The Euro is still showing a significant low off the coast, in fact it was the strongest of all at 0Z with a 933 mb low off New Jersey, then slamming into the NJ coast on Tuesday morning. The 12Z is coming out as I write this, and WOW. That thing has a sub-935 millibar low off Virginia Monday morning, and is much closer to the coastline! Are you kidding me?

WHAT DOES IT MEAN HERE?: For Cincinnati, this one is still too early to call. As the BAM Chase Team noted on twitter earlier this afternoon, a 100 mile shift or so to the west of the GFS solution puts them, and by extension Cincinnati, in the game for snow! By the same token, a 100 mile shift east takes a good bit of the Ohio Valley out of the running. There is one thing I can safely say with confidence: Wherever this storm hits, it will be NASTY with damaging winds, coastal flooding, and, west of this system, it will hammer some areas with snowfall that may be measured in FEET.

MORE UPDATES: As this system continues to form, I will be updating with long term discussions until this gets into a range within which I can make a more confident forecast. Stay tuned!

Jeremy Moses


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