10/25 Morning Long Range Discussion: What Will Sandy Do?

As promised, we’ll jump straight in with a look at what the models are doing with what is currently Category 2 Hurricane Sandy.

NOW: According to the latest National Hurricane Center advisory at 5:00 AM, Sandy is currently 40 miles or so east of Holguin, Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 105 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 960 millibars. Meanwhile, the cold front is back in the Midwest and moving east. How’s this for a temperature contrast: 73 degrees in downtown Kansas City, Missouri, but 36 degrees in York, Nebraska! Are you kidding me?

WHERE NEXT?: Now, here’s where the rubber meets the road. All of the models think that Sandy will move up through the Bahamas, then start a northeasterly turn. After that is when the picture becomes as clear as mud.

GFS: The GFS or Global Forecast System model wants to take this thing out to sea again and has it at 966 millibars way off the US coast. It had the same idea as the Euro yesterday, but now it’s lost it again. Because of its inconsistency, I can’t support this model run. I will note that it has the 540 line diving well south of Cincinnati.

EURO: The European model has it slamming the Delmarva peninsula hard as a 953 millibar storm! Yikes. However, it has the 540 line well north of us.

NOGAPS: It’s doing the same thing as the Euro…unfortunately, the NOGAPS map is so cluttered, I can’t read it to tell you what it says the minimum pressure would be.

CANADIAN: The GGEM model eventually slams this into the NYC area as a 950 millibar low. Are you kidding me? On this one, the 540 line comes south enough that, if there were any precipitation, it’d be snow. However, it looks as if it’s keeping much of the precipitation south of us, and it’d likely be rain.

WHAT’S IT MEAN FOR CINCY?: Right now, it’s still something that I can’t totally call. Here’s what I’m doing: I’m leaving Tuesday dry at this time. However…owing to the cold air, and the fact that at least some moisture might be present, I have to allow for a possible rain/snow mix on Halloween. Temperatures through this period…ouch. We’re looking at a hard crash landing into the 40’s with lows possibly down into the upper 20’s. For us to get a significant storm out of this, something is going to have to give in order for this to be more west. A 100 mile shift closer to us from the Euro/NOGAPS/Canadian combo gets it pretty darn close.

ELSEWHERE: There will be MAJOR impacts on the east coast from South Carolina northward. If you live ANYWHERE on the seaboard, start thinking about necessary preparations. Those along the beaches might want to plan for evacuations in case of coastal flooding…yes it could be necessary to evacuate. If you live inland, prepare for strong winds that may cause extensive power outages and damage as well as the potential for inland freshwater flooding. And if you’re near or west of the mountains, especially from WV northward? You’ll possibly have a major snowstorm to deal with, so start thinking about preparing for that, too.

I cannot overemphasize this situation. I know it sounds like overblown hype, but trust me…a storm like this has the potential to be, is NOT your everyday occurrence. Please, share this post with any and all friends and family that live on the eastern seaboard. If this pans out, and it’s more and more likely with each run of the forecast models, this storm would be EXTREMELY dangerous and life-threatening.

The next update to this particular discussion will be this afternoon after the 12Z models come in.

Jeremy Moses

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