10/25 PM Long Range Discussion: Hard Left or Slow Turn?

We’re going to jump right into the meat of this discussion once again. I don’t wish to waste any time…

NOW: According to the latest National Hurricane Center advisory at 2 PM, Sandy was 25 miles east of Grand Exuma Island in the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 105 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 960 millibars. Meanwhile, the cold front is crossing the Midwest.

WHERE NEXT?: Now, here’s where the rubber meets the road. All of the models think that Sandy will continue to move up through the Bahamas, then start a northeasterly turn. From here, they diverge but not as much as this morning. A discussion of each model follows. We’ll establish off the bat that ALL of these have a pretty serious pressure gradient, so winds may be a problem, if not for us then somewhere across the northeast.

GFS: The GFS or Global Forecast System model lost it last night. It now is back with the consensus, with around 940 millibars of pressure prior to landfall somewhere around Long Island. If that happens, it’s disaster for NYC.

EURO: The European model has this beast at 932 millibars off North Carolina. And then… Yikes. HARD left turn into Northern VA! It also has below freezing temperatures at 5,000 feet.

NOGAPS: This model has the low into NJ at about 963 millibars.

CANADIAN: The GGEM model slams this into NJ at hour 120 or so as a 947 millibar low. Are you kidding me? On this one, the 5,000 foot freezing line comes south enough that, if there were any precipitation, it might be snow, and indeed it’s now bringing light precipitation to our area at hours 114-126.

WHAT’S IT MEAN FOR CINCY?: Right now, it’s still something that I can’t totally call. Here’s what I’m doing: I’m leaving Tuesday dry at this time, but this could change in future discussions. That said…many of the models also indicate that we could be dealing with a lot of wind! Stay tuned on this. However…owing to the cold air and the presence of moisture on both the GFS and Canadian, we’ll continue to have the chance of either rain or snow on Wednesday. Temperatures through this period…ouch. We’re looking at a hard crash landing into the 40’s with lows possibly down into the upper 20’s. For us to get a significant storm out of this, something is going to have to give in order for this to be more west. A bit more of a shift closer to us from the Euro/NOGAPS/Canadian combo gets it pretty darn close.

ELSEWHERE: There will be MAJOR impacts on the east coast from FL northward. If you live ANYWHERE on the seaboard, start thinking about necessary preparations. Those along the beaches might want to plan for evacuations in case of coastal flooding…yes it could be necessary to evacuate. If you live inland, prepare for strong winds that may cause extensive power outages and damage as well as the potential for inland freshwater flooding. And if you’re near or west of the mountains, especially from WV northward? You’ll possibly have a major snowstorm to deal with, so start thinking about preparing for that, too.

I cannot overemphasize this situation. I know it sounds like overblown hype, but trust me…a storm like this has the potential to be, is NOT your everyday occurrence. Please, share this post with any and all friends and family that live on the eastern seaboard. If this pans out, and it’s more and more likely with each run of the forecast models, this storm would be EXTREMELY dangerous and life-threatening.

The next update to this particular discussion will be tomorrow morning when I wake up and digest the 0Z models.

Jeremy Moses

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