Saturday Morning Sandy Update: Coming to a Consensus!

NOW: Sandy is currently a tropical storm, with winds of 70 MPH and a central pressure of 969 millibars 350 miles southeast of Charleston, SC.

MODEL BREAKDOWN: As I’ve been doing, here’s a quick recap of what the models are doing, and notice we’ve added a new one to this update, as the storm came within its range.

GFS: Has a 950 millibar low into S NJ. It also is trying to bring up to 1″ of snow to our eastern counties through 120 hours (5 days).

EURO: This shows a sub-960 millibar low, possibly as low as 950, into Delmarva. That’s scary.

NAM: This model is now able to see a 954 millibar low into S NJ Monday evening. We can’t determine yet how much snow may or may not fall, as the model only goes to 84 hours. It doesn’t have it that far away from the GFS.

NOGAPS: Like the NAM, it landfalls somewhere around 960 mb in NJ between 72 and 84 hours.

GGEM: The strongest of all with 946 mb in NJ! Are you kidding me?

WHAT DOES IT MEAN: Okay, this part of the discussion will be long-winded. For Cincinnati, wintry precipitation is still very much in play in 4-5 days (Tuesday night/Wednesday in particular). Monday is the calm before this storm. If you’re east of town, stay tuned because if this forecast changes much more, you’re in the thick of some significant snows.

EAST COAST: Okay, east coasters. We’re going to pay specific attention to you here. Now, the impacts to your specific area will differ depending on where Sandy makes final landfall. What is almost certain:

  • Damaging winds will be found over a wide area.
  • Storm surge flooding could be significant, particularly near and north of the landfall point.
  • Heavy rainfall will result in flooding over a good chunk of the northeast and could further exacerbate the wind damage threat.
  • On the western side, where cold air flows in, expect significant high elevation snows in WV/PA/W MD/NY.
  • BOTTOM LINE: Preparations must be made now to protect life and property. If told to evacuate, please do so following official directions on how and where. If you’re not in an evacuation area, do not leave unless it’s a situation where you are at risk from other hazards (I.E. river flooding) or it is absolutely necessary.

    No matter where you live, everyone should have an emergency preparedness kit. It should consist of the following:

  • NON-PERISHABLE food, water and medical supplies to last each family member at least 3 days, and ideally up to a week.
  • Battery powered radio and flashlight, in case you lose power.
  • Of course you need batteries to power the radio and flashlight.
  • Warm and dry clothes.
  • First aid supplies.
  • Cash. This is probably something not many think about. Here’s the reality: If the power goes out, a lot of ATM’s DO NOT have generators. Also, many merchants, even if open, may be unable to accept credit card transactions in the immediate aftermath.
  • Any pet supplies you need. I mistakenly left this off the list yesterday and I apologize. This is a must if you have pets, ESPECIALLY if you are evacuating. The shelter you go to may accept pets, but that doesn’t mean they have the specific food and supplies
      your

    pet needs.

  • If you live here in Cincinnati, and know someone in the affected region, please share this with them. The next update will be after the 12Z models once I see them.

    Jeremy

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