Saturday Afternoon 12/22 Update: Watching Two Winter Storms

Good afternoon everyone! We’ve got two systems to watch, so we’ll jump right in…

TONIGHT: Before we get to those, we have another cold night on tap. Most will be around 24 degrees tonight, but some spots will be colder.

SUNDAY: As we go into Sunday, we’ll be dry a good portion of the day if not all of the daytime hours. However, clouds will increase. I expect highs on Sunday afternoon around 42.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY: Sunday night is when things get ugly. A storm system is expected to scoot up through the area. Here’s the thing: I just took a look at the forecast models. The 540 thickness line on the GFS (Global Forecast System) comes very close to the area, even during the day Monday. (That line typically depicts the point at which most layers of the atmosphere may be cold enough for wintry precipitation, usually snow.) The 850 millibar freezing line does the same thing. The NAM has both a bit further north. While the NWS seems to be leaning more toward the NAM, I just can’t discount the GFS entirely. So, I’ll leave the wintry mix of snow and freezing rain in, especially in the morning, before a change to rain Monday afternoon. Lows on Sunday night will drop to near 30, with highs Monday not recovering much, maybe making it to 37 at best.

CHRISTMAS DAY: The holiday itself looks good and dry. While I’m pretty sure it WON’T be a White Christmas (unless the Sunday/Monday storm does something I’m not expecting), I do think it’ll be a sunny one with highs near 43.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: Confidence is increasing that a significant storm will threaten the area. What type of precipitation will depend on the track of the low pressure system, but the models generally keep it east of Cincinnati. If the track shifts a bit more east, that could put the metro in a heavy snow zone. A westward shift would mean the potential for plain old rain sneaks in especially east. STAY TUNED! Highs will be in the lower or middle 30’s with lows in the middle 20’s.

TODAY’S TRAVEL FORECAST: If you’re leaving Cincinnati, watch out if heading to the northeast…lake enhanced snows will continue in portions of NY, PA, Northeast Ohio, Michigan and up into Canada. The western third of the country looks to be a big mess, with valley rain and mountain snows. Also, I note a rainfall chance down in the Mississippi Delta region, which I believe is the Sunday/Monday storm in its early stages.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: The next update will be tomorrow morning. I had planned for only one update because of a gathering with my fiancee’s family…but now I’m not so sure. I’ll keep you updated on the possibility of a late day post. At the very least, I’ll post about any advisories that may be needed. Until then, take care!

Jeremy

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