Thursday 1/31 Evening Update: Snow May Cause Issues Tonight

TONIGHT: Snow showers should continue, especially south and east of Cincinnati tonight. Accumulations of 1-2″ are possible tonight south of the metro with lesser amounts in the metro and north — for this reason, the counties of Owen, Grant, Pendleton, Bracken, Mason, Lewis, and Robertson in KY and Adams and Scioto counties in Ohio have a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM. Areas in the NWS Louisville coverage area have an advisory until 2 AM. This snow could cause a few issues with slick roads and reduced visibility, so be careful. Lows will end up in the lower teens tonight. Along with those lows, winds may gust high enough (25-35 MPH) that we could see wind chills to -10.

FRIDAY: Expect dry weather again during the day, but we’ve adjusted the high DOWN to the upper teens. Yes, back in the freezer. Lows tomorrow night won’t be a lot better than tonight…only 14 at best. We could also have a snow shower or two late at night with the next storm coming in.

SATURDAY: Snow showers remain in the forecast. Look for highs around 29, with lows near 20 Saturday night. I’m not so bullish on highs in the lower 30’s now.

SUNDAY: The models leave a chance of scattered snow showers around. Interesting, and not sure that I can’t buy into this, particularly if there’s upper air support. Otherwise, we’ll be mostly cloudy. Temperatures will be close to freezing — I’m going 33. Lows Sunday night fall off to the upper teens again I think.

MONDAY: The latest models actually have Monday dry at this point. I’m inclined to leave a chance of snow in. I’m also sticking with highs in the middle 30’s. Remember what I’ve said the last couple days about the guidance being too warm for the expected situation? Yeah…it came down. It’s now showing a high of just 34 on Monday. I like this number a bit more.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: I am going to keep things partly cloudy and highs in the middle 30’s with lows in the upper teens to low 20’s.

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NEXT UPDATE: The next blog post will be in the morning. Until later, take care!

Jeremy Moses

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Thursday 1/31 Forecast: Frigid Air With a Touch of Snow!

TODAY: We will have snow showers around, especially south and east of Cincinnati for today. If you live in Indiana, your chances are less. Accumulations won’t be too significant (an inch or less), BUT it could cause a few issues with slick roads, so be careful. Highs will struggle to 30 and lows will end up in the lower teens tonight. Along with those lows, winds may gust high enough (25-35 MPH) that we could see wind chills to -10 tonight. Even during the day today, I cannot say for sure wind chills get above the middle teens.

FRIDAY: Expect dry weather again during the day, but we’ve adjusted the high DOWN to the upper teens. Yes, back in the freezer. Lows tomorrow night won’t be a lot better than tonight…only 12 at best. We could also have a snow shower or two late at night with the next storm coming in.

SATURDAY: Snow showers remain in the forecast. Look for highs around 29, with lows near 20 Saturday night. I’m not so bullish on highs in the lower 30’s now.

SUNDAY: The models leave a chance of scattered snow showers around. Interesting, and not sure that I can’t buy into this, particularly if there’s upper air support. Otherwise, we’ll be mostly cloudy. Temperatures will be close to freezing — I’m going 33. Lows Sunday night fall off to the upper teens again I think.

MONDAY: The latest models actually have Monday dry at this point. I’m inclined to leave a chance of snow in. I’m also sticking with highs in the middle 30’s. Remember what I’ve said the last couple days about the guidance being too warm for the expected situation? Yeah…it came down. It’s now showing a high of just 34 on Monday. I like this number a bit more.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: I am going to keep things partly cloudy and highs in the middle 30’s with lows in the upper teens to low 20’s.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us for weather info, school closings, and traffic updates:

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NEXT UPDATE: The next blog post will be later today. My apologies for not having one late yesterday…I was still half asleep much of the day. Until later, take care!

Jeremy Moses

Wednesday 1/30 Forecast: Rain Today, Snow Showers Tonight and Thursday

TODAY: Rain will dominate the forecast as a very strong cold front moves in. This front should send temperatures tumbling starting in the afternoon, then down to 24 by Thursday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has a SLIGHT RISK for areas east of Cincinnati. Frankly, that’ll likely be dropped by noon, so this will be the only mention of it. A plume of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico could also result in heavy rainfall this morning, but I don’t expect flooding issues from here. Any leftover rain should end as a few snow showers late tonight.

THURSDAY: It looks like a small system may try to drop some snow on us late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Accumulations won’t be too significant, BUT it could cause a few issues with slick roads so be careful. Highs will struggle to near freezing and lows will end up in the teens Thursday night.

FRIDAY: Expect dry weather again and a high into the middle 20’s. Yes, back in the freezer.

SATURDAY: A quick little system again, so a few snowflakes are back in the forecast. Look for highs around freezing, with lows near 20 both Saturday morning and night.

SUNDAY: Temperatures will be much the same as Saturday (that is, close to freezing — I’m going 33), but with partly cloudy skies. I am not buying lower 40’s as guidance suggests…not yet anyway.

MONDAY: A few rain and snow showers will be around with the next system, with highs in the middle to upper 30’s after lows in the upper 20’s. Again, I’m not buying into warmer guidance until I see what tomorrow’s and Saturday’s snow systems do.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us for weather info, school closings, and traffic updates:

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NEXT UPDATE: The next blog post will be later today at some point — as I am off to try to get some sleep soon after the overnight event. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses

Tuesday Evening Update: Tracking Tonight’s Severe Threat

Good evening everyone! I wanted to give you a quick update as to tonight’s severe weather possibility. Please note, we will focus exclusively on the period from now through Wednesday evening with this update.

THIS EVENING: I will keep things dry this evening. Storms will not arrive until the overnight period. Temperatures will probably hold steady in the middle 60’s for a good portion of the evening.

OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY:This is when things get rocky. The dynamics are in place, the wind shear is just right. Corey Ecton and I have been discussing this all day…it looks like a Quasi-Linear Convective System or squall line will move in during the overnight hours. What’s the timing? I think if you’re west of I-75, your best chances of storms are between 3-6 AM. East of I-75, the best chance is between 5-8 AM. Yes, there’s a bit of an overlap there. Temperatures still don’t move much…at least until the line gets here. We may stay close to 65.

THE THREATS: Damaging winds will be the main problem with this line. We could see some gusts to 70 mph or higher — these storms will have PLENTY of upper wind support to work with. Also, with a QLCS being the dominant storm mode, we may see a tornado or two embedded with the line, owing to the shear in place. Heavy rain is also a concern.

WEDNESDAY: Here’s where things get tricky. The cold front crosses the area in the late morning or early afternoon. This should produce a non-diurnal trend to the temperatures (that is, they’ll fall instead of rising). We end up in the upper 40’s by sunset. Rain will be around as well. Also, the upper level winds are such that even after the squall line/QLCS passes, we could mix down wind gusts to 50 MPH during the day, particularly behind the front.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain finally ends, maybe as a few snowflakes, and temperatures crash to the mid or lower 20’s. We may still have some strong wind gusts in the evening as well, but subsiding through the night.

SOCIAL MEDIA: I will be extremely active on social media tonight. Follow along:

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NEXT UPDATE: We will go back to a normal format with the next update tomorrow after the line passes through. I cannot guarantee when that will be. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses

Tuesday Morning 1/29 Forecast: Watching Severe Potential

TODAY: The warm air will continue to move northward today. I do now think we could see a brief period of partial clearing later today, but it’ll be short-lived as high clouds blow in from the southwest. I am expecting a high of 67. Yes, I adjusted upward.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: Lows tonight do not fall far — I am going to keep us in the lower 60’s tonight and for the first part of tomorrow. Rain will dominate the forecast as a very strong cold front moves in. This front will have just enough instability and wind shear that it could produce some strong winds with a line of showers and storms as it comes through tonight and tomorrow morning, and it should also send temperatures tumbling starting in the afternoon, then down to 24 by Thursday morning. Given the strong wind shear, a tornado CANNOT be ruled out either, but might be limited to a spin-up or two. The Storm Prediction Center has a SLIGHT RISK out west of Cincinnati. A plume of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico could also result in heavy rainfall and potentially some minor flooding in spots. Any leftover rain should end as a few snow showers late Wednesday night.

THURSDAY: I expect dry and partly cloudy conditions for the day, and a high near freezing. Thursday night a quick little system could still bring us a little light snow, otherwise I think lows will be in the teens Thursday night.

FRIDAY: Expect dry weather again and a high into the middle 20’s. Yes, back in the freezer.

SATURDAY: A quick little system again, so a few snowflakes are back in the forecast. Look for highs around freezing, with lows near 20 both Saturday morning and night.

SUNDAY: Temperatures will be much the same as Saturday (that is, close to freezing — I’m going 33), but with partly cloudy skies.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us for weather info, school closings, and traffic updates:

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NEXT UPDATE: The next blog post will be later today at some point. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses

Monday Night 1/28 Forecast: Still Warmer Tuesday, Back to Winter Late Week

UPDATE 10:50 PM: After further review, I was WAY too low on my expected low temperature. I am adjusting for this — going to shoot for 50, but we’ve been steady for several hours at 54.

TONIGHT: I expect some rain showers this evening, and lows will end up around 50.

TUESDAY: Yes, the warm air will continue to move northward. We will have showers around, but it will not rain all day, and we could see some sun at some point. I am expecting a high of 64. Yes, I adjusted upward.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY: Rain will dominate the forecast, and we will see a high of 60 around midday ahead of a cold front. This front will have just enough instability and wind shear that it could produce some strong winds with a line of showers and storms as it comes through during the day, and it should also send temperatures tumbling starting in the afternoon, then down to 24 by Thursday morning. A plume of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico could result in heavy rainfall and potentially some minor flooding in spots. Any leftover rain should end as a few snow showers late Wednesday night.

THURSDAY: I expect dry and partly cloudy conditions for the day, and a high near freezing. Thursday night a quick little system will bring us a little light snow, otherwise I think lows will be in the teens.

FRIDAY: Expect dry weather again and a high into the middle 20’s. Yes, back in the freezer.

SATURDAY: A quick little system again, so a few snowflakes are back in the forecast. Look for highs around freezing, with lows near 20 both Saturday morning and night.

SUNDAY: Temperatures will be much the same as Saturday (that is, close to freezing — I’m going 33), but with partly cloudy skies.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us for weather info, school closings, and traffic updates:

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NEXT UPDATE: The next blog post will be tomorrow morning around 6:30. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses

Monday 1/28 Forecast: The Rain and Warmup Continue!

TODAY: Rain continues through the day today. I am going with 50 as the warm air continues moving northward. Tonight’s lows end up around 40.

TUESDAY: Yes, the warm air will continue to move northward. The problem is, we will still have rain falling at times, and the clouds will hold tough. For these reasons, I can’t buy into middle 60’s just yet, so I’m sticking closer to 60 (and that could still be too high — watch the radar and satellite trends). Tuesday night’s lows should end up around 48.

WEDNESDAY: Rain will dominate the day, and a high of 55. A cold front comes through during the day — and that should send temperatures tumbling Wednesday night down to 24. Any leftover rain could end as a few snow showers late Wednesday night.

THURSDAY: I expect dry and partly cloudy conditions for the day, and a high near freezing. Thursday night a quick little system will bring us a little light snow, otherwise I think lows will be in the teens.

FRIDAY: Expect dry weather again and a high into the middle 20’s. Yes, back in the freezer.

SATURDAY: A quick little system again, so a few snowflakes are back in the forecast. Look for highs around freezing, with lows near 20 both Saturday morning and night.

SUNDAY: Temperatures will be much the same as Saturday (that is, close to freezing — I’m going 33), but with partly cloudy skies.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us for weather info, school closings, and traffic updates:

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NEXT UPDATE: The next blog post will be tonight at 6 or so. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses