Tuesday Evening Update: Tracking Tonight’s Severe Threat

Good evening everyone! I wanted to give you a quick update as to tonight’s severe weather possibility. Please note, we will focus exclusively on the period from now through Wednesday evening with this update.

THIS EVENING: I will keep things dry this evening. Storms will not arrive until the overnight period. Temperatures will probably hold steady in the middle 60’s for a good portion of the evening.

OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY:This is when things get rocky. The dynamics are in place, the wind shear is just right. Corey Ecton and I have been discussing this all day…it looks like a Quasi-Linear Convective System or squall line will move in during the overnight hours. What’s the timing? I think if you’re west of I-75, your best chances of storms are between 3-6 AM. East of I-75, the best chance is between 5-8 AM. Yes, there’s a bit of an overlap there. Temperatures still don’t move much…at least until the line gets here. We may stay close to 65.

THE THREATS: Damaging winds will be the main problem with this line. We could see some gusts to 70 mph or higher — these storms will have PLENTY of upper wind support to work with. Also, with a QLCS being the dominant storm mode, we may see a tornado or two embedded with the line, owing to the shear in place. Heavy rain is also a concern.

WEDNESDAY: Here’s where things get tricky. The cold front crosses the area in the late morning or early afternoon. This should produce a non-diurnal trend to the temperatures (that is, they’ll fall instead of rising). We end up in the upper 40’s by sunset. Rain will be around as well. Also, the upper level winds are such that even after the squall line/QLCS passes, we could mix down wind gusts to 50 MPH during the day, particularly behind the front.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain finally ends, maybe as a few snowflakes, and temperatures crash to the mid or lower 20’s. We may still have some strong wind gusts in the evening as well, but subsiding through the night.

SOCIAL MEDIA: I will be extremely active on social media tonight. Follow along:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: We will go back to a normal format with the next update tomorrow after the line passes through. I cannot guarantee when that will be. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses

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