Election Morning 11/6 Forecast: A Slight Change, But Otherwise Still Dry

TODAY/TONIGHT: Highs will be in the low 50’s for us here today, and I do have us dry. For tonight, that’s where I’m changing the forecast slightly. I am putting in a slight chance of rain with a quick disturbance. It’s a very low chance. Lows will be around 33.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Another storm heads up the east coast in the next 2 days. I want to make one thing perfectly clear for my East Coast readers. This is NOT on the same scale as Sandy as it isn’t going to be nearly as strong, but it’s something we know you just DO NOT need for the recovery efforts, emotionally or physically. Sandy did so much damage that this storm will be able to add insult to injury. Along the coast this will be a heavy rain/wind event…while inland you might get some more snow in the mountains of PA and West Virginia! Highs end up in the 40’s tomorrow, with the aforementioned slight chance of rain especially early. Thursday we may reach the low 50’s after lows in the low 30’s, but I think that’s it. Honestly, I’d take some action here in Cincinnati, if it meant the east coast got a break. To any readers over there, it is the hope of all of us at NKY Weather to see you recover ASAP.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Now, here’s where I’m kinda perplexed. Some of the teleconnection data suggests that we’ll be colder…but model guidance wants to send us to the 60’s. I’m not buying either extreme just yet. I’ll stick with middle or upper 50’s under dry skies.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: The next storm dives in. We’ll have to see what it has to work with, but it’s a potential big weather maker here. Finally, though, I think THIS could push us to the 60’s.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

A REQUEST TO OUR READERS: I am not going to mince words: The Red Cross needs a lot of help. They deal with a lot of disasters, but Sandy was a once in a lifetime event for the northeast…and the damage is extensive. They need help to get the residents of NY, NJ, PA, MD, DE, and CT back on their feet. I encourage you, please go to redcross.org and make a donation, or text “SANDY” to 90999 and a $10 donation will be added to your phone bill. Also, a Sunday post I wrote has information about donating to Matthew 25 Ministries if you want to send actual supplies to the coast, or starting tomorrow, volunteer to organize supplies. Let’s get the northeast back on their feet.

NEXT UPDATE: Our next update will be tomorrow morning. Until then, take care and go vote!

Jeremy

Monday 11/5 Update: An Extended Dry Spell

A quiet stretch of weather is back in Cincinnati on this Election Eve…all while the Northeast will continue to try to recover from Sandy and have to deal with another storm. Oh boy. Welcome to your forecast update for Monday, November 5, 2012!

TODAY: It’s going to be another dry day in the stretch. We’re going with 52.

TONIGHT: Another dry night, and also cold. Lows will be around 30.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Another storm heads up the east coast in the next few days. I want to make one thing perfectly clear for my East Coast readers. This is NOT on the same scale as Sandy as it isn’t going to be nearly as strong, but it’s something we know you just DO NOT need for the recovery efforts, emotionally or physically. Sandy did so much damage that this storm will be able to add insult to injury. Along the coast this will be a heavy rain/wind event…while inland you might get some more snow in the mountains of PA and West Virginia! Highs will be in the low 50’s for us here tomorrow and then in the 40’s Wednesday with lows in the 30’s, and I’ll leave us dry. Thursday we may reach the low 50’s but I think that’s it. Honestly, I’d take some action here in Cincinnati, if it meant the east coast got a break. To any readers over there, it is the hope of all of us at NKY Weather to see you recover ASAP.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Now, here’s where I’m kinda perplexed. Some of the teleconnection data suggests that we’ll be colder…but model guidance wants to send us to the 60’s. I’m not buying either extreme just yet. I’ll stick with middle or upper 50’s under dry skies.

SUNDAY: The next storm dives in. We’ll have to see what it has to work with, but it’s a potential big weather maker here. Finally, though, I think THIS could push us to the 60’s.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along with us in the aftermath of Sandy:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

A REQUEST TO OUR READERS: I am not going to mince words: The Red Cross needs a lot of help. They deal with a lot of disasters, but Sandy was a once in a lifetime event for the northeast…and the damage is extensive. They need help to get the residents of NY, NJ, PA, MD, DE, and CT back on their feet. I encourage you, please go to redcross.org and make a donation, or text “SANDY” to 90999 and a $10 donation will be added to your phone bill. Also, a Sunday post I wrote has information about donating to Matthew 25 Ministries if you want to send actual supplies to the coast, or starting tomorrow, volunteer to organize supplies. Let’s get the northeast back on their feet.

NEXT UPDATE: Since we’re in a quiet period, I’m not going to promise twice-daily updates for Cincinnati weather here on the blog. We’ll probably go once a day, so the next one would be early Election Day morning. Until then, take care!

Jeremy

10/29 Monday Night Update: The Worst Is Yet To Come

Here is an update on the Cincinnati forecast…as a reminder we are ONLY dealing with the time period during which Sandy is affecting our region until Wednesday morning’s update.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY: This is the really ugly part of the forecast…thus the tagline. We’ll head into tonight with the winds continuing, strong from the north. Later tonight, the worst winds will arrive, with wind gusts as high as 55 MPH. Rain will also continue. The best chance of snow mixing into the equation in metro Cincinnati will be in this time frame. Lows will be around 33 tonight with highs AT BEST on Tuesday only around 40. Yes, I’m still going cooler than the NWS forecast.

TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: From here, things will slowly improve. Tuesday night I still think winds will be gusty, to as high as 45 MPH. Rain will taper off slowly from the west Wednesday morning, as Sandy scoots off to the northeast. I am at this point going to say that we still need to allow for a rain/snow mix east of town. Lows on Tuesday night will fall to near 30, with highs on Wednesday rising to 45.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Please note that there’ve been a lot of tweets and Facebook posts that are NOT about Cincinnati. I am making an effort to try to warn as many folks as possible to get the heck out of the way, and we’ve also been following a hazmat situation in Louisville. That said, follow along:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: I’m not going to promise anything from this point onward because it will depend on the internet staying up here at HQ. If it goes offline, updates will be less frequent, but I cannot promise when they’ll go up (I do have a smartphone, and have means to power it as may be necessary). Take care…PLEASE be safe over the next 48 hours!

Jeremy

Monday 10/29 Update: Conditions Going Downhill

A WIND ADVISORY goes into effect at noon today until 6 PM Tuesday.

Good morning everyone! One reminder: I’m not going to do forecasts for the time period from Wednesday night onward. We will be specifically focusing on this event while it’s happening.

TODAY: Conditions start heading downhill today. Rain won’t quite make it to metro Cincinnati, but I think we’ll see a slow progression through the day. Winds will also increase through the day. By evening look for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 40-45. Highs will reach 45 at best. Too much cold air flowing into the area for me to go with the upper 40’s the NWS is showing.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY: This is the really ugly part of the forecast. We’ll head into tonight with the winds continuing, strong from the north. By noon on Tuesday I think we could see gusts to 50-55 MPH. Rain and wind will also continue. The best chance of snow mixing into the equation in metro Cincinnati will be in this time frame. Lows will be around 31 with highs AT BEST on Tuesday only around 40. Yes, I’m still going cooler than the NWS forecast.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: From here, things will slowly improve. Tuesday night I still think winds will be gusty, to as high as 45 MPH. Rain will taper off slowly from the west Wednesday morning, as Sandy scoots off to the northeast. I am at this point going to say that we still need to allow for a rain/snow mix east of town. Lows on Tuesday night will fall to near 30, with highs on Wednesday rising to 45.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Please note that there’ve been a lot of tweets and Facebook posts that are NOT about Cincinnati. I am making an effort to try to warn as many folks as possible to get the heck out of the way. That said, follow along:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: I’m not going to promise anything from this point onward because it will depend on the internet staying up here at HQ. If it goes offline, updates will be less frequent, but I cannot promise when they’ll go up (I do have a smartphone, and have means to power it as may be necessary). Take care…PLEASE be safe over the next 72 hours!

Jeremy

Sunday Night 10/28 Forecast Update: Here Comes the Wind and Rain

A WIND ADVISORY goes into effect at noon tomorrow until 6 PM Tuesday.

Good evening everyone! One administrative note before I start with the update: Beginning with this post I’m not going to do forecasts for the time period from Wednesday night onward. We will be specifically focusing on this event while it’s happening.

One other thing I’d like to note, that I mentioned on social media: The 18Z models do bring an inch or two of snow to our eastern counties. I’m not going with that in my forecast. The biggest reason is that I don’t think snowfall rates would be significant enough to where the snow would stick. That said, at various points some snow could mix in. So, here we go…

TONIGHT: I think the rain stays to our east for tonight. I can’t rule out a few snowflakes mixing in tonight late for Adams and Lewis counties and points east. Lows will be around 33.

MONDAY: Here’s where conditions start heading downhill! Rain won’t quite make it to metro Cincinnati, but I think we’ll see a slow progression through the day. Winds will also increase through the day. By evening look for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 40-45. Highs will reach 45 at best. Too much cold air flowing into the area to go with the upper 40’s the NWS is showing.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: This is the really ugly part of the forecast. We’ll head into Monday night with the winds continuing, strong from the north. By noon on Tuesday I think we could see gusts to 50-55 MPH. Rain and wind will also continue. The best chance of snow mixing into the equation in metro Cincinnati will be in this time frame. Lows will be around 31 with highs AT BEST on Tuesday only around 40. Yes, I’m going cooler than the NWS forecast.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: From here, things will slowly improve. Tuesday night I still think winds will be gusty, to as high as 45 MPH. Rain will taper off slowly from the west Wednesday morning, as Sandy scoots off to the northeast. I am at this point going to say that we still need to allow for a rain/snow mix east of town. Lows on Tuesday night will fall to near 30, with highs on Wednesday rising to 45.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Please note that there’ve been a lot of tweets and Facebook posts that are NOT about Cincinnati. I am making an effort to try to warn as many folks as possible to get the heck out of the way. That said, follow along:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT UPDATE: My next update to the blog will be tomorrow morning. After that, I’m not going to promise anything because it will depend on the internet staying up here at HQ. If it goes offline, updates will be less frequent, but I cannot promise when they’ll go up (I do have a smartphone, and have means to power it as may be necessary). Take care…PLEASE be safe over the next 72 hours!

Jeremy

Sandy East Coast Update: LIFE THREATENING SITUATION

As promised, here is a specific update for Hurricane Sandy’s impacts to the East Coast…

WINDS: I think the National Hurricane Center is making the wrong move in not issuing hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings north of Duck, NC. There WILL BE hurricane force winds within 200 miles of wherever Sandy makes landfall. Tropical Storm force winds could extend out 600 miles (!!!!) from the center!

STORM SURGE: According to NHC, life threatening storm surge can be anticipated north of the center of Sandy. They have up to 11 feet of storm surge into NYC as well as in Long Island Sound which will cause major coastal flooding and might even do damage to transit systems in NYC. Waves will be even higher than that! Storm surge will even affect the Great Lakes with waves as high as 18 feet on the open waters and 15 feet near the lakeshore!

INLAND FLOODING: We will see inland flooding from this as well. Up to ten inches of rain may fall in parts of Maryland and Delaware.

SNOW: And if all of that wasn’t enough, several FEET of snow will be possible in the highest elevations of WV/PA.

BOTTOM LINE: Please, please follow all directions of your local emergency management agency. If told to evacuate, GET OUT…you may be putting your life in danger if you do not do so. If you are told to stay, gather some necessary supplies:

  • Enough non-perishable food and water for each member of your family for a MINIMUM of 72 hours, and preferably up to one week, and a manual (NOT ELECTRIC unless it is battery powered) can opener
  • Any necessary medical supplies, including first aid gear
  • Battery operated flashlight and radio, and enough batteries for those devices
  • Warm clothes
  • After the storm, don’t go near any downed trees or power lines. These can cause severe injury or death!

    This is a serious, life threatening situation. If you do not heed the warnings, you are putting yourself and your family at risk. Please take the situation EXTREMELY seriously!

    Jeremy

    Sunday Forecast Update: Sandy to be Big Story

    Good morning and welcome to your Sunday morning forecast update for October 28, 2012! One note before jumping in: This post will be Cincinnati-area specific. Another post will come later for any readers from other areas.

    TODAY: I am expecting dry, but cloudy conditions except for Adams, Mason and Lewis Counties which may see a few showers. We will only reach about 51 degrees.

    TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: We’ll start to really feel the effects of what is still currently Hurricane Sandy. Precipitation will spread in and overnight both tonight and Monday night I cannot rule out a chance of snow mixing in. This is a change from our earlier forecast, which didn’t have that occurring until Tuesday night and Wednesday. The other major concern is wind. We will see winds ramping up Monday and Tuesday, and wind gusts may be as high as 50 MPH on Tuesday! Needless to say, this is a major concern. Highs will be in the low to mid 40’s and lows in the 30’s.

    WEDNESDAY: The rain will start to get out of here later in the day, but it will remain breezy and cold with highs in the 40’s.

    THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Expect dry conditions with highs in the low 50’s.

    SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along as we track Sandy:

    NKYWx on Facebook
    NKYWx on Twitter

    NEXT UPDATE: The next update for the Cincinnati area will be tonight. An update for the rest of the Eastern US will be forthcoming before noon. Until then, take care and stay warm!

    Jeremy Moses