SHORT TERM UPDATE: Severe Storms Near Indy

A quick short-term forecast update:

At 7:10 PM, radar indicates some severe storms near Indianapolis, moving east at 50 MPH. Be aware that these may contain damaging winds and large hail. On their present path, they’re on track to hit Fayette and Union Counties in Indiana and possibly clip NW Butler County in Ohio around 9 PM EDT. Those are the only severe storms on the board and they are likely going to weaken as the sun sets in the next 30-40 minutes.

Advertisements

Sunday 9/16/12 Forecast Discussion: Are You Kidding Me??

Well, that sure seems to be what I am saying a lot this morning as I look past Monday! Welcome to your forecast discussion for Sunday, September 16, 2012!

TODAY: Once again today, we’ll start out in the 40’s and 50’s (except urban areas seem to be hanging around 60) for lows areawide. As we go into the afternoon, expect nice weather for Bengals/Browns, for grilling out, for basically anything outdoors! (Related note, I’m going to that Bengals game – if you see me, say hi!) Highs this afternoon should end up in the middle 70’s.

TONIGHT-MONDAY: Okay, I do think we’re okay for tonight, in terms of rain only. Why do I specifically say that? Well, we’ve got our next system coming in. All indications are that the clouds will be on the increase going into tomorrow. That said, again, we’re dry tonight, and I think we’re in the lower 50’s for most everyone. Monday, the modeling suggests some showers breaking out with dynamics already in place…and while I do NOT agree with the timing, and think it’s a bit fast, I have no choice but to increase the rain threat Monday afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: Here’s that front I mentioned. Temperatures Monday night drop as low as 60, but no further. Under clouds and rain on Tuesday, we cannot recover – I think we’re in the middle 60’s. That’s it, and that’s likely a high that occurs early in the afternoon. Temperatures begin to PLUMMET on Tuesday afternoon…and I think we’re already in the 50’s by the time 6 PM rolls around. This is where I first asked, “Are you kidding me??” — because one particular model has a temperature anomaly at -10 to -15 degrees! Folks, by this time of year, our average highs are in the upper 70’s. You can forget that Tuesday *IF* we’re lucky.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: The front will be gone by this point. So, where are our temperatures? They’re hitting bottom. Again, “Are you kidding me??” Oh, dear readers, I wish I WERE. Alas, we fall into the middle 40’s just about everywhere Tuesday night (after getting that head start on Tuesday afternoon), and struggle just to hit the mid 60’s on Wednesday.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Beyond that, Thursday may indeed be more of the same…highs struggling to the upper 60’s, yet we have full sun. Wow. Then, another front on Friday and I need to leave the rain chances in.

NEXT SATURDAY: Once more…”Are you kidding me??” Sensing a theme here? We’re dry, but yet AGAIN we’re struggling into the middle 60’s on a stiff north wind. If you go far enough north in Ohio? I can’t rule out that you don’t get out of the 50’s! Ouch.

SOCIAL MEDIA: Follow along:

NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

NEXT DISCUSSION: My next update will be Monday morning at 9…unless I’m hung over from the Bengals game today. Until then, take care, be smart and be SAFE.

Jeremy Moses

A Personal Plea From NKYWx’s Jeremy Moses: Help Spina Bifida Association of Cincinnati

To the Loyal Fans of NKYWx:

I’ve struggled with whether or not I should make this post. I have decided (with a bit of encouragement from at least one meteorologist friend – thank you Nicole Misencik of WTHR/Indianapolis) that if I do so, it can’t hurt. This is intensely personal, it is a part of me…and I feel I should share this with my loyal Facebook fans and Twitter followers. On the NKYWx Facebook and Twitter feeds, and so far here on the blog, I have tried to keep my personal life out of what I do weather-wise. I just felt it unnecessary to combine these two things.

But, as is commonly said, “To know is to understand”, or something like that. I may have that quote messed up, as I’m writing this at 4:40 in the morning after agonizing with this decision, off and on, for 3 weeks.

Yours truly was diagnosed with Spina Bifida at birth in 1985. Spina Bifida (Latin: “Split Spine”), which from now on I will refer to as SB, is a congenital birth defect in which the spine fails to close up completely. It does not have me — let me be clear. I have it. It does not define me. It does not define what I do.

It does, however, occasionally affect what I do, and my ability to do it well. At times, issues that are, directly or indirectly, related to SB, cause a medical scare that I have to take care of. (If you’ve been around long enough this year, you know I recently underwent an endoscopy…my digestive tract is one thing that SB has, indirectly, affected. My urinary tract is directly impacted, for another example.)

So, this is why I bring all of this up. Again, I normally don’t promote non-weather events I am doing on this site or on the NKYWx Twitter or Facebook pages, but this is something dear to my heart. On September 29 at 10 AM, I am participating in the 12th annual Walk and Roll for the Spina Bifida Association of Cincinnati at Miami Whitewater Forest in Harrison. If you are able and willing to help me in this cause, please give a donation to SBAC on my behalf. The link will take you straight to a fundraising page I have set up. It’s 100 percent secure, goes directly to and STAYS with the SBAC to help local families, and it’s tax deductible.

So…if you are able to help, I ask you to please, do so. It won’t take much from you. But if a bunch of us get together…well, it all goes far in helping SBAC support families in the Cincinnati Tri-State.

Find out more about SBAC at the Spina Bifida Association of Cincinnati website.

Thank you,

Jeremy Moses
NKYWx Admin

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631 in effect until 11 PM

Here’s the latest updated information on the severe weather threat:

  • A Severe Thunderstorm WATCH is in effect until 11 PM tonight for Boone, Campbell and Kenton Counties in NKY, all but Switzerland County in Indiana, and all but Adams County in Ohio.
  • Severe thunderstorms are still expected this evening, but I’m becoming less concerned about the overnight period. If storms move over the area, they may stabilize things enough to where we’re not going to see severe weather overnight.
  • There is still a concern, and rightfully so, that storms may impact high school football games this evening. Please be sure, if you haven’t already, to check out our Safety Tips.

That is the latest as we know it right now. Stay with NKYWx on Twitter and Facebook for the latest info all evening long.

Wednesday 9/5/12 PM Forecast Discussion: After Those Storms…Now What?

UPDATED 7:30 PM EDT 9/5/12…Scroll down for update if you saw this earlier.

Welcome to your PM forecast discussion for Wednesday, September 5, 2012.

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE: The worst weather has pushed east of metro Cincinnati. The watch we’ve had in effect is being cancelled west to east. I really think our chances have diminished for severe weather…that being said, watch for flooding around the area the next few hours.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY *UPDATED 7:30 PM*: Okay, after further review of things, here’s what’s going on. All indications appear to be that we may see SOME clearing tonight. However, there’s problems here:

1) High-Resolution Models still want to bring another convective line through here tonight after midnight.
2) The NAM (North American Mesoscale) model does NOT bring anything through here – but it also missed the storms we just had.
3) The global forecast models don’t have much, but they do have something out there.

With this being the case…I will go ahead and clear things out a bit tonight, but not completely, but I will also leave room for a chance of rain late – but maybe 30-40 percent at best. IF I am wrong and we do clear completely, look for a repeat of last night with fog, some of it locally dense. Tomorrow I don’t see much in the way of showers or storms…even though other forecasts do bring some in here in the afternoon…I can’t rule it out, but I will keep the forecast dry for now and if there needs to be a chance I’ll include it in tomorrow’s morning forecast.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Friday looks okay, with highs in the middle 80s. That’s before the next front moves in. SPC has us in a 5 percent chance of severe weather on Friday…which is probably about right. That next front will move through Friday night and Saturday. Saturday, at this point, looks like a washout unfortunately. Highs on Saturday will struggle just to hit the middle 70s.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: A nice couple or three days on tap after that front passes. Look for clearing skies on Sunday, and dry weather Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 70’s, approaching 80 by Tuesday and into the lower 80s by Wednesday!

Follow along on social media:
NKYWx on Facebook
NKYWx on Twitter

The next discussion will be Thursday morning. Until then, take care!

Jeremy Moses